Fossil futures built on a house of cards

The report critiques the 'net zero' framework and the expansion of carbon offset markets, asserting that they create a false equivalence between carbon removals and avoided emissions. It argues that these mechanisms serve as a 'house of cards' designed to protect stranded fossil fuel assets by providing a veneer of climate action while allowing ongoing emissions. The document specifically highlights the efforts of the Task Force on Scaling Voluntary Carbon Markets (TSVCM) and the Architecture for REDD+ Transactions (ART-TREES) to standardize and commodify different types of carbon credits to increase market volume. It concludes that the only viable path to limiting warming to 1.5°C is a rapid, just transition to renewable energy and the immediate phase-out of fossil fuels, rather than reliance on speculative carbon removal technologies or flawed offsetting schemes.

• The 'net zero' or 'climate neutrality' claims are described as greenwashing tactics that rely on the scientifically flawed assumption that continued emissions can be balanced by carbon removal.
• Carbon offsets are predominantly based on avoided or reduced emissions, which do not physically remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and therefore do not compensate for ongoing emissions.
• Engineered carbon removal technologies currently exist only at pilot scales, and their potential for large-scale deployment is hindered by massive energy requirements and land-use needs.
• Market actors, specifically the TSVCM and ART-TREES, are attempting to blend avoided emissions, emission reductions, and carbon removals into a single, interchangeable credit unit to artificially increase the supply of offsets.
• The Task Force on Scaling Voluntary Carbon Markets (TSVCM) is heavily influenced by the financial sector, with 28 of its 55 members representing banks, investment firms, and fossil fuel-related companies seeking to protect stranded assets.
• The ART-TREES standard is criticized for using jurisdictional approaches that may obscure human rights abuses and land-grabbing, while making REDD+ credits fungible with other emission reductions.
• The report warns that the transformation of carbon offsets into complex financial derivatives, such as futures and swaps, risks creating a 'subprime carbon' crisis similar to the 2008 financial crisis.
• Nature-based solutions are often used as a 'smokescreen' for speculative geo-engineered approaches and can lead to 'carbon tunnel vision' that ignores biodiversity and the rights of Indigenous Peoples.

APA

Stabinsky, D. (2022). Fossil futures built on a house of cards. Friends of the Earth International. https://www.foei.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Fossil-futures-built-on-a-house-of-cards_report-2022.pdf

Chicago

Stabinsky, Doreen. Fossil futures built on a house of cards. Friends of the Earth International, 2022. https://www.foei.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Fossil-futures-built-on-a-house-of-cards_report-2022.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Stabinsky |first1=Doreen |title=Fossil futures built on a house of cards |publisher=Friends of the Earth International |date=June 2022 |url=https://www.foei.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Fossil-futures-built-on-a-house-of-cards_report-2022.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stabinsky2022fossil, author = {Stabinsky, Doreen}, title = {{Fossil futures built on a house of cards}}, institution = {Friends of the Earth International}, year = {2022}, month = jun, url = {https://www.foei.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Fossil-futures-built-on-a-house-of-cards_report-2022.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }