El futuro a base de combustibles fósiles está construido sobre un castillo de naipes

The document critiques the 'net zero' framework, asserting that it relies on the scientifically flawed assumption that ongoing fossil fuel emissions can be offset by carbon removals. It specifically analyzes how initiatives like ART-TREES and the Taskforce on Scaling Voluntary Carbon Markets (TSVCM) attempt to standardize and merge different types of carbon credits—avoided emissions, reduced emissions, and removals—into single, fungible assets to increase market scale. The report warns that this 'house of cards' encourages continued fossil fuel use, risks creating a 'subprime carbon' financial crisis through derivatives and speculation, and threatens the rights of Indigenous peoples through land grabbing for nature-based solutions.

• The 'net zero' or 'climate neutrality' concept is described as a greenwashing tactic that allows countries and companies to delay real action until 2040 or 2050 by assuming emissions can be offset by removing carbon from the atmosphere.
• Carbon removals cannot substitute for deep emission reductions; the report states that relying on this assumption will likely lead to an increase in emissions rather than a reduction.
• There is a critical physical difference between 'avoided emissions' (which do not remove existing CO2 from the air) and 'carbon removals'; however, market actors are attempting to merge them into single, interchangeable units to expand the supply of offsets.
• The Taskforce on Scaling Voluntary Carbon Markets (TSVCM) and the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (IC-VCM) are working to create a standardized 'CCP' (Core Carbon Principles) bond to make carbon credits fungible and liquid, which the report argues serves to protect the value of stranded fossil fuel assets.
• The ART-TREES standard is criticized for using jurisdictional approaches to mobilize large amounts of carbon and hide social and environmental abuses, such as land grabbing and human rights violations against Indigenous peoples, as seen in the case of Acre, Brazil.
• Nature-based solutions are often temporary and limited in scale, yet they are used as a 'smoke screen' to justify the future use of speculative and risky geoengineering technologies, referred to as 'carbon unicorns'.
• The report warns that the financialization of carbon through derivatives, futures, and 'Natural Asset Companies' (NACs) could lead to a financial crisis similar to the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis if the underlying carbon assets are found to be 'junk'.
• The only viable path to limiting warming to 1.5°C is a rapid, just, and equitable transition to a people-centered renewable energy system, which excludes the use of carbon offsets.

APA

Stabinsky, D., Bhatnagar, D., Shaw, S., Rojas, I., Marien, N., Race, M., Chandrasekaran, K., Gilbertson, T., Jackson, R. R., Kennerley, R., Onodera, Y., Raman, M., Roche, C., Orenstein, K., Lahiri, S., & Goldtooth, T. (2022). El futuro a base de combustibles fósiles está construido sobre un castillo de naipes. Friends of the Earth International. https://www.foei.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/El-futuro-a-base-de-combustibles-fosiles-esta-construido-sobre-un-castillo-de-naipes_informe-2022.pdf

Chicago

Stabinsky, Doreen, Dipti Bhatnagar, Sara Shaw, Isaac Rojas, Nele Marien, Madeleine Race, Kirtana Chandrasekaran, et al. El futuro a base de combustibles fósiles está construido sobre un castillo de naipes. Friends of the Earth International, 2022. https://www.foei.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/El-futuro-a-base-de-combustibles-fosiles-esta-construido-sobre-un-castillo-de-naipes_informe-2022.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{stabinsky2022futuro, author = {Stabinsky, Doreen and Bhatnagar, Dipti and Shaw, Sara and Rojas, Isaac and Marien, Nele and Race, Madeleine and Chandrasekaran, Kirtana and Gilbertson, Tamra and Jackson, Rachel Rose and Kennerley, Rachel and Onodera, Yuri and Raman, Meena and Roche, Colin and Orenstein, Karen and Lahiri, Souparna and Goldtooth, Tom}, title = {{El futuro a base de combustibles fósiles está construido sobre un castillo de naipes}}, institution = {Friends of the Earth International}, year = {2022}, month = jun, url = {https://www.foei.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/El-futuro-a-base-de-combustibles-fosiles-esta-construido-sobre-un-castillo-de-naipes_informe-2022.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }