Advisory Memo: Fossil Fuel Commitments in Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement

The document argues that fossil fuel production is the primary driver of the climate emergency and must be directly addressed in NDCs to meet the 1.5°C temperature limit. It proposes a comprehensive framework of commitments, including phasing out extraction, ending new licenses, and redirecting subsidies, while emphasizing a just transition for workers and developing nations. The memo justifies these inclusions through the Paris Agreement's purpose, the UNFCCC's precautionary principle, and recent outcomes like the COP28 Global Stocktake.

• There is a significant gap between current fossil fuel production plans and the goals of the Paris Agreement; countries are planning to produce 110% more fossil fuels than is compatible with the 1.5°C limit by 2030.
• To maintain the 1.5°C temperature limit, fossil fuel production needs to decrease by at least 40%, and potentially up to 58%, by the year 2030.
• The proposed framework for NDCs suggests that all countries should, at a minimum, commit to issuing no new extraction licenses, while producer countries should commit to a phase-out of existing supply based on equity.
• The framework recommends that all countries end and redirect fossil fuel subsidies toward just transition and economic diversification, including an assessment of both direct and indirect subsidies such as tax breaks and guarantees.
• Legal justification for including fossil fuel commitments in NDCs is found in Article 2.1(a) of the Paris Agreement and the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, which requires parties to avoid acts that would defeat the treaty's object and purpose.
• The 2023 Global Stocktake at COP28 and the September 2024 Pact for the Future reinforce the obligation for countries to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in an equitable and just manner.
• Beyond the Paris Agreement, the ITLOS Advisory Opinion indicates that states have an obligation to control pollution from GHG emissions, as they have deleterious effects on the marine environment.

APA

Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative (n.d.). Advisory Memo: Fossil Fuel Commitments in Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement. https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/ndcs

Chicago

Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative. Advisory Memo: Fossil Fuel Commitments in Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement. n.d. https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/ndcs.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative |title=Advisory Memo: Fossil Fuel Commitments in Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement |url=https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/ndcs |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{fossilfuelnonproliferationtreatyinitiativendadvisory, author = {{Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative}}, title = {{Advisory Memo: Fossil Fuel Commitments in Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement}}, institution = {Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative}, url = {https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/ndcs}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }