LOUISIANA ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR INSIGHTS

The report uses the Louisiana Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) to compare a Business As Usual (BAU) trajectory with a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) scenario. Under BAU, Louisiana's economy-wide emissions are projected to increase by 30% by 2050. Conversely, the NDC scenario, which aligns with Paris Agreement targets, could reduce statewide emissions by 97% below 2020 levels by 2050. This transition would rely heavily on industrial fuel switching and green hydrogen, potentially creating 263,000 new job-years and avoiding 2,300 premature deaths annually by 2050.

• Under the Business As Usual (BAU) Scenario, Louisiana's economy-wide emissions are projected to increase by 30 percent by 2050 compared to 2020 levels, primarily due to forecasted increases in industrial energy consumption.
• The NDC Scenario, based on policies aligned with U.S. targets under the Paris Agreement, could reduce Louisiana's statewide emissions by 97 percent below 2020 levels by 2050, leaving approximately 5 MMT CO2e.
• Industrial fuel switching and green hydrogen production are the most significant drivers of emissions reductions in the NDC Scenario, accounting for 52 percent and 25 percent of reductions by 2050, respectively.
• The NDC Scenario is projected to have significant positive economic and health impacts, adding an estimated 263,000 new job-years by 2050 and avoiding approximately 2,300 premature deaths per year by 2050.
• Achieving the NDC Scenario's reductions requires the deployment of emerging technologies that are not yet commercialized or widely used, specifically carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and hydrogen electrolysis.
• Industry is the primary source of emissions in Louisiana, representing over 60 percent of total emissions in 2020, with the chemicals, refined petroleum, and oil and gas industries accounting for 85 percent of those industrial emissions.

APA

ASHMOORE, O., ORVIS, R., SUBIN, Z., IYER, N., ROWLAND, L., CLARK-SUTTON, K., & SHEPARD, J. (2021). LOUISIANA ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR INSIGHTS. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Louisiana-Energy-Policy-Simulator-Insights-Current-Emissions-Trajectory-NDC-Scenario.pdf

Chicago

ASHMOORE, OLIVIA, ROBBIE ORVIS, ZACK SUBIN, NATHAN IYER, LAINIE ROWLAND, KYLE CLARK-SUTTON, and JUN SHEPARD. LOUISIANA ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR INSIGHTS. Energy Innovation, 2021. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Louisiana-Energy-Policy-Simulator-Insights-Current-Emissions-Trajectory-NDC-Scenario.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{ashmoore2021louisiana, author = {ASHMOORE, OLIVIA and ORVIS, ROBBIE and SUBIN, ZACK and IYER, NATHAN and ROWLAND, LAINIE and CLARK-SUTTON, KYLE and SHEPARD, JUN}, title = {{LOUISIANA ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR INSIGHTS}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2021}, month = nov, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Louisiana-Energy-Policy-Simulator-Insights-Current-Emissions-Trajectory-NDC-Scenario.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }