DELIVERING AFFORDABILITY

Battery electric heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) are projected to become the most cost-effective freight transport option in most U.S. states by 2030. While current U.S. purchase prices are anomalously high compared to global trends, falling battery costs and operational savings are driving a clear TCO advantage over diesel and hydrogen fuel cell trucks. The report emphasizes that state-level policy leadership—including price transparency, resale value support, and infrastructure credits like California's LCFS—is critical to unlocking these economic benefits.

• Battery electric HDVs across all major vehicle segments are projected to be cheaper on a per-mile basis than diesel models by 2030 in most U.S. states.
• By 2035, battery electric HDVs are modeled to provide tens of thousands of dollars in savings over a five-year ownership period compared to diesel vehicles.
• U.S. purchase prices for battery electric HDVs are currently two to three times higher than diesel equivalents and have trended upward from 2021 to 2024, contrasting with price declines in Europe and China.
• Battery electric HDVs maintain a decisive cost advantage over hydrogen fuel cell (FC) trucks across capital, fuel, and total ownership costs through 2040.
• Texas is identified as the most favorable U.S. state for battery electric HDV adoption due to its low electricity costs, which accelerate TCO savings.
• California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) significantly reduces charging costs, lowering the public megawatt-scale levelized charging cost from $0.315 to $0.258 per kWh.
• Low resale value assumptions by risk-averse lenders increase financing costs for fleets; doubling the annual interest rate from 5% to 10% delays the purchase price parity of Class 8 trucks to 2040.
• The U.S. is a global leader in EV and battery manufacturing investment, with $209 billion in announced projects through September 2024, yet it lags in deployment, with BE HDVs making up only 0.5% of new truck sales in the first half of 2024.

APA

Busch, C., Basma, H., Swift, M. F., & Sinha, A. (2025). DELIVERING AFFORDABILITY. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Delivering-Affordability-Emerging-Cost-Advantages-of-Battery-Electric-Heavy-Duty-Trucks.pdf

Chicago

Busch, Chris, Hussein Basma, Mary Francis Swift, and Anish Sinha. DELIVERING AFFORDABILITY. Energy Innovation, 2025. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Delivering-Affordability-Emerging-Cost-Advantages-of-Battery-Electric-Heavy-Duty-Trucks.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Busch |first1=Chris |last2=Basma |first2=Hussein |last3=Swift |first3=Mary Francis |last4=Sinha |first4=Anish |title=DELIVERING AFFORDABILITY |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=May 2025 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Delivering-Affordability-Emerging-Cost-Advantages-of-Battery-Electric-Heavy-Duty-Trucks.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{busch2025delivering, author = {Busch, Chris and Basma, Hussein and Swift, Mary Francis and Sinha, Anish}, title = {{DELIVERING AFFORDABILITY}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2025}, month = may, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Delivering-Affordability-Emerging-Cost-Advantages-of-Battery-Electric-Heavy-Duty-Trucks.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }