ACHIEVING AN EQUITABLE AND RELIABLE 85 PERCENT CLEAN ELECTRICITY SYSTEM BY 2030 IN CALIFORNIA

The report argues that California can reliably reach an 85 percent clean electricity target by 2030 through a diverse portfolio of resources, including offshore wind and geothermal, while retiring significant natural gas capacity. It emphasizes the need to prioritize the retirement of gas plants in disadvantaged communities (DACs) to improve environmental justice. The authors recommend leveraging demand-side resources as a risk mitigation strategy and expanding regional coordination through a West-wide Regional Transmission Organization (RTO) to enhance grid resilience and reduce costs. The report serves as a policy companion to a technical analysis that stress-tested these portfolios against extreme weather events.

• Technical analysis demonstrates that California can reliably operate a power system reaching 85 percent clean electricity by 2030, which would align the state with U.S. federal ambitions for a carbon-free electricity system by 2035.
• Diversifying the clean energy portfolio with resources such as geothermal and offshore wind can lower the required deployment rates for utility-scale solar and onshore wind, reducing risks related to supply chains, siting, and permitting.
• California can maintain grid reliability while retiring approximately one-third of its remaining natural gas capacity (about 11.5 GW) by 2030, provided it continues to build out clean energy and storage.
• Prioritizing the retirement of natural gas plants in disadvantaged communities (DACs) is essential for environmental justice, as more than half of the state's gas plants are located in these areas and contribute to significant local air pollution.
• Demand-side resources, specifically 'Load Shift' capabilities, can serve as a critical hedge against potential delays or supply chain disruptions in the deployment of battery storage.
• Greater regional coordination, potentially through a West-wide Regional Transmission Organization (RTO), could significantly reduce costs for California ratepayers and improve the reliability of economic imports.
• The current 'RPS' (Renewable Portfolio Standard) mindset, which focuses on the lowest marginal cost of energy, may be insufficient for the final stages of decarbonization where system reliability and the retirement of specific fossil fuel assets become the primary challenges.

APA

O’BOYLE, M., GIMON, E., & ESPOSITO, D. (2022). ACHIEVING AN EQUITABLE AND RELIABLE 85 PERCENT CLEAN ELECTRICITY SYSTEM BY 2030 IN CALIFORNIA. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Achieving-An-Equitable-And-Reliable-85-Percent-Clean-Electricity-System-By-2030-In-California-1.pdf

Chicago

O’BOYLE, MIKE, ERIC GIMON, and DAN ESPOSITO. ACHIEVING AN EQUITABLE AND RELIABLE 85 PERCENT CLEAN ELECTRICITY SYSTEM BY 2030 IN CALIFORNIA. Energy Innovation, 2022. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Achieving-An-Equitable-And-Reliable-85-Percent-Clean-Electricity-System-By-2030-In-California-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=O’BOYLE |first1=MIKE |last2=GIMON |first2=ERIC |last3=ESPOSITO |first3=DAN |title=ACHIEVING AN EQUITABLE AND RELIABLE 85 PERCENT CLEAN ELECTRICITY SYSTEM BY 2030 IN CALIFORNIA |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=9 May 2022 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Achieving-An-Equitable-And-Reliable-85-Percent-Clean-Electricity-System-By-2030-In-California-1.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{oboyle2022achieving, author = {O’BOYLE, MIKE and GIMON, ERIC and ESPOSITO, DAN}, title = {{ACHIEVING AN EQUITABLE AND RELIABLE 85 PERCENT CLEAN ELECTRICITY SYSTEM BY 2030 IN CALIFORNIA}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2022}, month = may, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Achieving-An-Equitable-And-Reliable-85-Percent-Clean-Electricity-System-By-2030-In-California-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }