ASSESSING IMPACTS OF THE “ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL ACT” ON U.S. ENERGY COSTS, JOBS, HEALTH, AND EMISSIONS

The report finds that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) would significantly increase U.S. household energy costs, lead to substantial job losses in manufacturing and clean energy, and increase greenhouse gas emissions and premature deaths. By repealing key tax credits and environmental standards, the bill is projected to shrink cumulative GDP by $1.1 trillion between 2025 and 2034 and reduce new electricity capacity by 330 GW by 2035. While the bill expands oil and gas leasing, the report argues that the resulting increase in production is offset by higher demand-driven prices for fossil fuels.

• The OBBBA is projected to increase annual household energy bills by $20 billion in 2030 and over $37 billion by 2035, totaling $170 billion in increased costs between 2025 and 2034. These increases are driven by a higher dependence on fossil fuels and rising prices due to increased demand.
• The legislation would cause significant economic contraction, shrinking cumulative GDP by $1.1 trillion between 2025 and 2034. It is estimated to cost the U.S. workforce 840,000 jobs in 2030 and 790,000 jobs in 2035, with the most severe job losses occurring in Texas, California, and Florida.
• The bill would dramatically slow the deployment of new electricity generating capacity, reducing cumulative new capacity by 120 GW by 2030 and 330 GW by 2035. The largest reductions are seen in wind capacity (210 GW decrease by 2035) and solar capacity (110 GW decrease by 2035).
• The repeal of the 45X tax credit for advanced manufacturing would likely lead to the cancellation of most battery manufacturing projects not yet under construction, resulting in the loss of 31,000 battery manufacturing jobs by 2030.
• Environmental and health impacts include an increase in carbon dioxide equivalent emissions by 160 million metric tons (Mt CO2e) in 2030 and nearly 310 Mt CO2e by 2035. This increase in pollution is projected to cause 430 additional premature deaths annually by 2030 and 930 annually by 2035.
• While the OBBBA expands offshore oil and gas leasing in the Gulf of Mexico and Cook Inlet and lowers royalty rates, these supply-side changes are overshadowed by demand-driven price increases. The reduction in royalties is estimated to cost the government $10.5 billion in direct lost revenue from 2025 to 2035.

APA

Energy Innovation (2025). ASSESSING IMPACTS OF THE “ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL ACT” ON U.S. ENERGY COSTS, JOBS, HEALTH, AND EMISSIONS. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Impacts-Of-The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-On-U.S.-Energy-Costs-Jobs-Health-And-Emissions_FINAL.pdf

Chicago

Energy Innovation. ASSESSING IMPACTS OF THE “ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL ACT” ON U.S. ENERGY COSTS, JOBS, HEALTH, AND EMISSIONS. 2025. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Impacts-Of-The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-On-U.S.-Energy-Costs-Jobs-Health-And-Emissions_FINAL.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Energy Innovation |title=ASSESSING IMPACTS OF THE “ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL ACT” ON U.S. ENERGY COSTS, JOBS, HEALTH, AND EMISSIONS |date=June 2025 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Impacts-Of-The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-On-U.S.-Energy-Costs-Jobs-Health-And-Emissions_FINAL.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{energyinnovation2025assessing, author = {{Energy Innovation}}, title = {{ASSESSING IMPACTS OF THE “ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL ACT” ON U.S. ENERGY COSTS, JOBS, HEALTH, AND EMISSIONS}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2025}, month = jun, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Impacts-Of-The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-On-U.S.-Energy-Costs-Jobs-Health-And-Emissions_FINAL.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }