ASSESSING IMPACTS OF THE “ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL ACT” ON U.S. ENERGY COSTS, JOBS, HEALTH, AND EMISSIONS

This report by Energy Innovation analyzes the projected economic, environmental, and health impacts of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA), a 2025 budget Reconciliation legislation passed by the U.S. House of Representatives. The analysis compares a "Current Policies" scenario against an "EI House OBBBA" scenario, finding that the bill's repeal of clean energy tax credits and environmental standards would lead to higher energy costs, significant job losses in manufacturing, increased greenhouse gas emissions, and higher premature death rates.

• The House OBBBA is projected to significantly increase annual energy costs for American households, totaling $170 billion in increased bills between 2025 and 2034. Annual increases are estimated at $20 billion in 2030 and over $37 billion by 2035, driven by a higher reliance on fossil fuels and rising fuel prices.
• The legislation would cause substantial job losses and economic contraction. It is estimated to cost the U.S. workforce 840,000 jobs in 2030 and 790,000 jobs in 2035. Cumulative GDP is projected to shrink by $1.1 trillion during the 2025 to 2034 budget window.
• The bill would dramatically slow the deployment of new electricity generating capacity. Compared to current policies, the OBBBA would decrease cumulative new capacity by 120 GW by 2030 and 330 GW by 2035, with the largest reductions occurring in wind and solar capacity.
• The repeal of the 45X tax credit for advanced manufacturing would severely impact the U.S. battery industry, potentially leading to the cancellation of most projects not yet under construction. This is projected to result in the loss of 31,000 battery manufacturing jobs by 2030, contributing to a total of 230,000 lost manufacturing jobs that year.
• Environmental and health outcomes would deteriorate under the OBBBA. Carbon dioxide equivalent emissions are projected to increase by 160 million metric tons (Mt CO2e) in 2030 and nearly 310 Mt CO2e by 2035. This increase in pollution is linked to 430 additional premature deaths annually by 2030 and 930 annually by 2035.
• The bill includes provisions to expand oil and gas leasing and lower royalty rates, which would increase domestic production. While this would lower fuel prices slightly, the effect is offset by higher demand for fossil fuels resulting from the repeal of clean energy incentives and vehicle emission standards.

APA

Energy Innovation (2025). ASSESSING IMPACTS OF THE “ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL ACT” ON U.S. ENERGY COSTS, JOBS, HEALTH, AND EMISSIONS. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Impacts-Of-The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-On-U.S.-Energy-Costs-Jobs-Health-And-Emissions_FINAL.pdf

Chicago

Energy Innovation. ASSESSING IMPACTS OF THE “ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL ACT” ON U.S. ENERGY COSTS, JOBS, HEALTH, AND EMISSIONS. 2025. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Impacts-Of-The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-On-U.S.-Energy-Costs-Jobs-Health-And-Emissions_FINAL.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Energy Innovation |title=ASSESSING IMPACTS OF THE “ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL ACT” ON U.S. ENERGY COSTS, JOBS, HEALTH, AND EMISSIONS |date=June 2025 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Impacts-Of-The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-On-U.S.-Energy-Costs-Jobs-Health-And-Emissions_FINAL.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{energyinnovation2025assessing, author = {{Energy Innovation}}, title = {{ASSESSING IMPACTS OF THE “ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL ACT” ON U.S. ENERGY COSTS, JOBS, HEALTH, AND EMISSIONS}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2025}, month = jun, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Impacts-Of-The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-On-U.S.-Energy-Costs-Jobs-Health-And-Emissions_FINAL.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }