ASSESSING IMPACTS OF THE 2025 RECONCILIATION BILL ON U.S. ENERGY COSTS, JOBS, HEALTH, AND EMISSIONS

The report finds that the 2025 Reconciliation bill would significantly increase household energy costs, lead to substantial job losses, and increase greenhouse gas emissions by repealing clean energy incentives and EPA standards. Despite proposed increases in oil and gas production, the analysis suggests that higher demand for fossil fuels and the loss of low-cost renewable capacity would raise overall energy spending and decrease GDP.

• The proposed Reconciliation legislation would increase annual energy costs for American households by more than $16 billion in 2030 and more than $33 billion by 2035. On a per-household basis, this represents an average increase of $120 per year in 2030 and over $230 per year in 2035.
• The bill is projected to cause significant economic contraction, with cumulative GDP decreasing by more than $1 trillion between 2025 and 2034. It would result in the loss of more than 830,000 jobs in 2030 and nearly 720,000 jobs in 2035.
• Changes to the section 45Y production tax credit (PTC) and section 48E investment tax credit (ITC) would reduce new electricity capacity additions by 114 GW by 2030 and 302 GW by 2035. This includes significant decreases in wind (205 GW by 2035) and solar (95 GW by 2035) capacity.
• The legislation would increase greenhouse gas emissions by nearly 130 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2e) in 2030 and nearly 260 Mt CO2e by 2035. This increase in pollution is estimated to cause nearly 350 additional premature deaths annually by 2030 and nearly 670 by 2035.
• While the bill proposes expanding oil and gas leasing and lowering royalty rates—which would increase oil production by 6% and natural gas by 1% by 2050—the resulting price drops are more than offset by increased demand for fossil fuels due to the repeal of clean energy incentives.
• The legislation would terminate or accelerate the phase-out of several key tax credits, including the clean vehicle tax credit (I.R.C. §30D) in 2027, the commercial clean vehicle tax credit (I.R.C. 45W) in 2026, and the residential clean energy credit (I.R.C. §25D) in 2026.

APA

Energy Innovation (2025). ASSESSING IMPACTS OF THE 2025 RECONCILIATION BILL ON U.S. ENERGY COSTS, JOBS, HEALTH, AND EMISSIONS. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Impacts-Of-2025-House-Reconciliation-Bill-On-U.S.-Energy-Costs-Jobs-Health-Emissions.pdf

Chicago

Energy Innovation. ASSESSING IMPACTS OF THE 2025 RECONCILIATION BILL ON U.S. ENERGY COSTS, JOBS, HEALTH, AND EMISSIONS. 2025. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Impacts-Of-2025-House-Reconciliation-Bill-On-U.S.-Energy-Costs-Jobs-Health-Emissions.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Energy Innovation |title=ASSESSING IMPACTS OF THE 2025 RECONCILIATION BILL ON U.S. ENERGY COSTS, JOBS, HEALTH, AND EMISSIONS |date=May 2025 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Impacts-Of-2025-House-Reconciliation-Bill-On-U.S.-Energy-Costs-Jobs-Health-Emissions.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{energyinnovation2025assessing, author = {{Energy Innovation}}, title = {{ASSESSING IMPACTS OF THE 2025 RECONCILIATION BILL ON U.S. ENERGY COSTS, JOBS, HEALTH, AND EMISSIONS}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2025}, month = may, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Impacts-Of-2025-House-Reconciliation-Bill-On-U.S.-Energy-Costs-Jobs-Health-Emissions.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }