ASSESSING IMPACTS OF THE 2025 RECONCILIATION BILL ON U.S. ENERGY COSTS, JOBS, HEALTH, AND EMISSIONS

This report by Energy Innovation analyzes the potential economic, environmental, and health impacts of the U.S. House of Representatives' 2025 budget Reconciliation legislation. The analysis compares a 'Current Policies' scenario against an 'EI Reconciliation May 2025' scenario, finding that the proposed repeals and modifications of clean energy tax credits and funding would increase household energy costs, lead to significant job losses, reduce electricity capacity, and increase greenhouse gas emissions and premature deaths.

• The 2025 Reconciliation legislation is projected to increase annual energy costs for American households by more than $16 billion in 2030, rising to over $33 billion by 2035. On a per-household basis, this represents an average increase of $120 per year in 2030 and more than $230 per year in 2035.
• The proposed policy changes would result in substantial job losses and economic contraction, costing the U.S. workforce more than 830,000 jobs in 2030 and nearly 720,000 jobs in 2035. Cumulative GDP is projected to decrease by more than $1 trillion between 2025 and 2034.
• The legislation would significantly reduce new electricity capacity additions compared to current policies, with a total decrease of 114 GW by 2030 and 302 GW by 2035. By 2035, the specific reductions include 95 GW for solar, 205 GW for wind, and 14 GW for battery storage.
• Environmental and health impacts would worsen under the proposed bill, with carbon dioxide equivalent emissions increasing by nearly 130 million metric tons (Mt CO2e) in 2030 and nearly 260 Mt CO2e by 2035. This increase in pollution is linked to nearly 350 additional premature deaths annually by 2030, rising to nearly 670 by 2035.
• The bill proposes expanding oil and gas leasing, including a requirement for at least 30 lease sales in the Gulf of Mexico and 6 in the Cook Inlet. While this would increase production—by 6% for oil and 1% for natural gas by 2050—the resulting price drops (e.g., $12 per year reduction in household bills by 2035) are more than offset by higher demand and the loss of low-cost clean energy.
• The legislation targets several specific tax credits for early termination or restriction, including the clean vehicle tax credit (terminating in 2027 instead of 2032), the residential clean energy credit (phasing out in 2026 instead of 2035), and the clean hydrogen production tax credit (terminating in 2026 instead of 2032).

APA

Energy Innovation (2025). ASSESSING IMPACTS OF THE 2025 RECONCILIATION BILL ON U.S. ENERGY COSTS, JOBS, HEALTH, AND EMISSIONS. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Impacts-Of-2025-House-Reconciliation-Bill-On-U.S.-Energy-Costs-Jobs-Health-Emissions.pdf

Chicago

Energy Innovation. ASSESSING IMPACTS OF THE 2025 RECONCILIATION BILL ON U.S. ENERGY COSTS, JOBS, HEALTH, AND EMISSIONS. 2025. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Impacts-Of-2025-House-Reconciliation-Bill-On-U.S.-Energy-Costs-Jobs-Health-Emissions.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Energy Innovation |title=ASSESSING IMPACTS OF THE 2025 RECONCILIATION BILL ON U.S. ENERGY COSTS, JOBS, HEALTH, AND EMISSIONS |date=May 2025 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Impacts-Of-2025-House-Reconciliation-Bill-On-U.S.-Energy-Costs-Jobs-Health-Emissions.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{energyinnovation2025assessing, author = {{Energy Innovation}}, title = {{ASSESSING IMPACTS OF THE 2025 RECONCILIATION BILL ON U.S. ENERGY COSTS, JOBS, HEALTH, AND EMISSIONS}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2025}, month = may, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Impacts-Of-2025-House-Reconciliation-Bill-On-U.S.-Energy-Costs-Jobs-Health-Emissions.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }