THE COAL COST CROSSOVER: ECONOMIC VIABILITY OF EXISTING COAL COMPARED TO NEW LOCAL WIND AND SOLAR RESOURCES

This report analyzes the economic viability of existing U.S. coal-fired power plants compared to new local wind and solar resources. It finds that a significant portion of the U.S. coal fleet is now more expensive to operate than it would be to replace with new renewable energy located within 35 miles of the plants.

• In 2018, approximately 74 percent of the U.S. coal fleet, totaling 211 gigawatts (GW), was 'at risk,' meaning it could be replaced by local wind or solar resources at a lower cost. This figure is projected to grow to 86 percent of the fleet, or 246 GW, by 2025.
• A subset of the coal fleet is 'substantially at risk,' defined as being replaceable by local renewables at an all-in cost more than 25 percent lower than the coal plant's ongoing marginal costs. In 2018, 94 GW of capacity fell into this category, a number expected to rise to 140 GW (nearly half the U.S. fleet) by 2025, even with the phase-out of federal renewable energy tax credits.
• The analysis identifies strong regional trends: by 2025, almost all coal plants in the PJM footprint are at risk based on energy value comparisons. In the Southeast, nearly all coal plants are projected to be substantially at risk of replacement by local solar by 2025, with solar energy often costing half as much as coal power under the NREL lowest-cost scenario.
• The report notes that the 'cost crossover' is conservative because it only considers resources within 35 miles of a plant. Expanding the search to more remote resources via transmission could increase the number of at-risk plants. For example, in Colorado, coal plants are not flagged as at risk from local wind in this study, but they are economically replaceable by wind resources in the eastern part of the state.
• The marginal cost of energy (MCOE) for the majority of U.S. coal plants ranges between $33 and $111 per megawatt-hour (MWh). In comparison, 2018 costs for solar were more tightly clustered between $28 and $52 per MWh, while wind costs ranged from $13 to $88 per MWh depending on location.

APA

GIMON, E., O’BOYLE, M., CLACK, C. T., & MCKEE, S. (2019). THE COAL COST CROSSOVER: ECONOMIC VIABILITY OF EXISTING COAL COMPARED TO NEW LOCAL WIND AND SOLAR RESOURCES. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Coal-Cost-Crossover_Energy-Innovation_VCE_FINAL2.pdf

Chicago

GIMON, ERIC, MIKE O’BOYLE, CHRISTOPHER T.M. CLACK, and SARAH MCKEE. THE COAL COST CROSSOVER: ECONOMIC VIABILITY OF EXISTING COAL COMPARED TO NEW LOCAL WIND AND SOLAR RESOURCES. Energy Innovation, 2019. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Coal-Cost-Crossover_Energy-Innovation_VCE_FINAL2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=GIMON |first1=ERIC |last2=O’BOYLE |first2=MIKE |last3=CLACK |first3=CHRISTOPHER T.M. |last4=MCKEE |first4=SARAH |title=THE COAL COST CROSSOVER: ECONOMIC VIABILITY OF EXISTING COAL COMPARED TO NEW LOCAL WIND AND SOLAR RESOURCES |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=March 2019 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Coal-Cost-Crossover_Energy-Innovation_VCE_FINAL2.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{gimon2019coal, author = {GIMON, ERIC and O’BOYLE, MIKE and CLACK, CHRISTOPHER T.M. and MCKEE, SARAH}, title = {{THE COAL COST CROSSOVER: ECONOMIC VIABILITY OF EXISTING COAL COMPARED TO NEW LOCAL WIND AND SOLAR RESOURCES}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2019}, month = mar, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Coal-Cost-Crossover_Energy-Innovation_VCE_FINAL2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }