COAL COST CROSSOVER 2.0

The report 'COAL COST CROSSOVER 2.0' analyzes the economic viability of the United States coal fleet compared to new wind and solar energy. It finds that a vast majority of existing coal capacity is now more expensive to operate than building new nearby renewable projects, a trend that is accelerating faster than previous forecasts.

• As of 2020, 72 percent of the 239 gigawatts (GW) of online U.S. coal capacity—approximately 166 GW—was either uneconomic compared to local wind or solar resources or scheduled for retirement within five years. This represents 80 percent of the 235 individual plants in the U.S. coal fleet.
• The 'cost crossover'—where the costs of operating existing coal plants exceed the all-in costs of new renewables—is accelerating. A 2018 analysis found 62 percent of coal capacity was uneconomic; the 2020 finding of 72 percent indicates the fleet is reaching the 77 percent uneconomic projection for 2025 ahead of schedule.
• The economic decline of coal is driven by rapid cost reductions in wind and solar, federal tax credits (such as the 26 percent investment tax credit for solar and $15/MWh production tax credit for wind), and a drop in coal plant capacity factors from 53 percent in 2017 to 40 percent in 2020.
• When externalized social and public health costs are included, no coal plant in the U.S. fleet remains economic. The report estimates these external costs range from $30 to $146 per megawatt-hour (MWh).
• The U.S. coal fleet generates significant annual pollution, including over 1 billion tons of CO2, 677,253 tons of NOx, and 937,012 tons of SO2. The report notes that coal plants are more likely to be located near low-income communities and communities of color.
• Several market failures prevent the faster retirement of uneconomic coal, including captured regulators, monopoly utility protections, unpaid capital account balances, and insufficient transmission build-out.
• To facilitate a transition, the report recommends that state legislators authorize ratepayer-backed securitization to reduce retirement costs and that Public Utility Commissions (PUCs) require all-source competitive procurements for new generation resources.

APA

GIMON, E., MYERS, A., & O’BOYLE, M. (2021). COAL COST CROSSOVER 2.0. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Coal-Cost-Crossover-2.0.pdf

Chicago

GIMON, ERIC, AMANDA MYERS, and MIKE O’BOYLE. COAL COST CROSSOVER 2.0. Energy Innovation, 2021. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Coal-Cost-Crossover-2.0.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=GIMON |first1=ERIC |last2=MYERS |first2=AMANDA |last3=O’BOYLE |first3=MIKE |title=COAL COST CROSSOVER 2.0 |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=May 2021 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Coal-Cost-Crossover-2.0.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{gimon2021coal, author = {GIMON, ERIC and MYERS, AMANDA and O’BOYLE, MIKE}, title = {{COAL COST CROSSOVER 2.0}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2021}, month = may, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Coal-Cost-Crossover-2.0.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }