ENHANCING CANADA’S CLIMATE COMMITMENTS: BUILDING ON THE PAN-CANADIAN FRAMEWORK

The analysis finds that the Pan-Canadian Framework (PCF), if fully implemented, will leave a 2030 emissions gap of 161 million metric tons (MMT), which is 3.7 times larger than the 44 MMT shortfall predicted by the Canadian government. While an 'Extended' scenario—strengthening PCF policies through 2050—comes closer to the 2030 target, it still falls short of Canada's mid-century goal to reduce emissions by 80-90 percent below 2005 levels. The report highlights that the carbon tax and methane capture are the most effective PCF policies for 2030, and that both the PCF and PCF Extended scenarios would result in significant annual economic savings and thousands of lives saved by 2050 due to reduced particulate matter emissions.

• The Pan-Canadian Framework (PCF) is projected to fall short of Canada's 2030 emissions goal by 161 million metric tons (MMT), a gap that is 3.7 times larger than the 44 MMT shortfall estimated by the Canadian government.
• The carbon tax and methane capture and destruction are the most impactful policies within the PCF for 2030, together accounting for 73 percent of the total abatement.
• The most cost-effective policies for emissions abatement through 2050 include transportation demand management, energy-efficient building codes, electric vehicle (EV) sales mandates, and the early retirement of coal power plants.
• Under a 'PCF Extended' scenario, where the carbon tax increases by $10 per year to reach $330 per tonne by 2050, the number of battery electric vehicles in the light-duty passenger fleet is projected to reach 60 percent by 2050, compared to 38 percent in the Business as Usual (BAU) case.
• Both the PCF and PCF Extended scenarios are projected to generate long-term economic savings. By 2050, the PCF package is estimated to save between $25 billion and $45 billion per year, while the PCF Extended package is estimated to save between $95 billion and $150 billion per year, depending on whether carbon tax revenues are returned to society.
• The reduction of particulate matter emissions under these scenarios is projected to save human lives: the PCF package would result in 2,700 fewer deaths per year by 2050, and the PCF Extended package would reduce annual deaths by 4,600.
• To reach the mid-century goal of 80-90 percent emissions reduction, Canada must focus on reducing industrial process emissions—potentially through carbon capture and sequestration (CCS)—and decarbonizing the transport sector, specifically trucking, rail, and shipping.

APA

RISSMAN, J., ORVIS, R., RIEHL, B., ISRAËL, B., & PLUMPTRE, B. (2018). ENHANCING CANADA’S CLIMATE COMMITMENTS: BUILDING ON THE PAN-CANADIAN FRAMEWORK. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Canada-Energy-Policy-Simulator-Research-Note-FINAL.pdf

Chicago

RISSMAN, JEFFREY, ROBBIE ORVIS, BRIANNE RIEHL, BENJAMIN ISRAËL, and BORA PLUMPTRE. ENHANCING CANADA’S CLIMATE COMMITMENTS: BUILDING ON THE PAN-CANADIAN FRAMEWORK. Energy Innovation, 2018. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Canada-Energy-Policy-Simulator-Research-Note-FINAL.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=RISSMAN |first1=JEFFREY |last2=ORVIS |first2=ROBBIE |last3=RIEHL |first3=BRIANNE |last4=ISRAËL |first4=BENJAMIN |last5=PLUMPTRE |first5=BORA |title=ENHANCING CANADA’S CLIMATE COMMITMENTS: BUILDING ON THE PAN-CANADIAN FRAMEWORK |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=March 2018 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Canada-Energy-Policy-Simulator-Research-Note-FINAL.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rissman2018enhancing, author = {RISSMAN, JEFFREY and ORVIS, ROBBIE and RIEHL, BRIANNE and ISRAËL, BENJAMIN and PLUMPTRE, BORA}, title = {{ENHANCING CANADA’S CLIMATE COMMITMENTS: BUILDING ON THE PAN-CANADIAN FRAMEWORK}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2018}, month = mar, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Canada-Energy-Policy-Simulator-Research-Note-FINAL.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }