ENHANCING CANADA’S CLIMATE COMMITMENTS: BUILDING ON THE PAN-CANADIAN FRAMEWORK

This research paper evaluates the Pan-Canadian Framework (PCF) using the Canada Energy Policy Simulator (EPS), a tool developed by the Pembina Institute and Energy Innovation. The analysis finds that the PCF is insufficient to meet Canada's 2030 Paris Agreement goals and suggests that extending and strengthening these policies would improve environmental, economic, and public health outcomes.

• The Canada Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) projects that if the Pan-Canadian Framework (PCF) is fully implemented, 2030 emissions will exceed Canada's goal by 161 million metric tons (MMT). This gap is 3.7 times larger than the 44 MMT shortfall estimated by the Canadian government.
• The most effective policies within the PCF for reducing emissions by 2030 are methane capture and destruction and the carbon tax, which together account for 73 percent of the total abatement in that year.
• The 'PCF Extended to Mid-Century' scenario, which increases the carbon tax at a rate of $10 per tonne per year to reach $330 per tonne by 2050, significantly increases electric vehicle (EV) penetration. By 2050, this scenario projects 60 percent of the light-duty passenger vehicle fleet will be battery EVs, compared to 38 percent in the Business as Usual (BAU) case.
• Both the PCF and PCF Extended scenarios are projected to provide long-term economic savings. By 2050, the PCF package is estimated to save between $25 billion and $45 billion per year, while the PCF Extended package is estimated to save between $95 billion and $150 billion per year, depending on whether carbon tax revenues are returned to society.
• Reductions in particulate matter emissions under these scenarios are projected to save human lives. By 2050, the PCF package would result in 2,700 fewer deaths per year, and the PCF Extended package would reduce annual deaths by 4,600 relative to the BAU scenario.
• To reach Canada's mid-century goal of reducing emissions by 80-90 percent relative to 2005 levels, additional efforts are needed beyond the PCF Extended scenario. Specifically, further reductions are required in industrial process emissions and the decarbonization of the transport sector, particularly shipping, rail, and trucking.

APA

RISSMAN, J., ORVIS, R., RIEHL, B., ISRAËL, B., & PLUMPTRE, B. (2018). ENHANCING CANADA’S CLIMATE COMMITMENTS: BUILDING ON THE PAN-CANADIAN FRAMEWORK. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Canada-Energy-Policy-Simulator-Research-Note-FINAL.pdf

Chicago

RISSMAN, JEFFREY, ROBBIE ORVIS, BRIANNE RIEHL, BENJAMIN ISRAËL, and BORA PLUMPTRE. ENHANCING CANADA’S CLIMATE COMMITMENTS: BUILDING ON THE PAN-CANADIAN FRAMEWORK. Energy Innovation, 2018. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Canada-Energy-Policy-Simulator-Research-Note-FINAL.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=RISSMAN |first1=JEFFREY |last2=ORVIS |first2=ROBBIE |last3=RIEHL |first3=BRIANNE |last4=ISRAËL |first4=BENJAMIN |last5=PLUMPTRE |first5=BORA |title=ENHANCING CANADA’S CLIMATE COMMITMENTS: BUILDING ON THE PAN-CANADIAN FRAMEWORK |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=March 2018 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Canada-Energy-Policy-Simulator-Research-Note-FINAL.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rissman2018enhancing, author = {RISSMAN, JEFFREY and ORVIS, ROBBIE and RIEHL, BRIANNE and ISRAËL, BENJAMIN and PLUMPTRE, BORA}, title = {{ENHANCING CANADA’S CLIMATE COMMITMENTS: BUILDING ON THE PAN-CANADIAN FRAMEWORK}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2018}, month = mar, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Canada-Energy-Policy-Simulator-Research-Note-FINAL.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }