Evaluating Policies for California to Reach 55 Percent Reductions by 2030 using the Energy Policy Simulator

This briefing presents preliminary results from the California Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) regarding a scenario where California reduces greenhouse gas emissions by 55 percent below 1990 levels by 2030. The analysis indicates that while such a target would require an energy and industrial transition of "unprecedented speed and scope," it is achievable without new technologies and would result in significant economic gains, job growth, and public health improvements.

• To achieve a 55 percent reduction from 1990 levels, California's statewide emissions must decrease to 194 million metric tons (MMT) of CO2e or less, given that 1990 emissions are estimated at 431 MMT of CO2e.
• The 55 Percent Reduction Scenario is projected to provide substantial economic benefits by 2030, including an increase in state Gross Domestic Product of $55.4 billion (in 2021 dollars) and the creation of 235,000 total jobs, with 59,000 of those in the construction and manufacturing sectors.
• The scenario yields significant social and public health benefits valued at $26.9 billion in 2030. A primary driver of this value is the avoidance of 1,829 premature deaths due to air pollution exposure, a benefit that accrues disproportionately to people of Hispanic or Latino status.
• Reaching the 55 percent target requires accelerating several policy timelines. In the industry sector, fuel shifting to electrification and hydrogen, hydrogen production by electrolysis, and Carbon Capture and Storage must reach full strength by 2032. In transportation, 100 percent zero-emission vehicles for long-haul freight trucking must be achieved by 2030.
• The electricity sector goals for the 55 Percent Reduction Scenario in 2030 include clean energy reaching 95% of end use demand (90% of grid-scale generation) and renewable technologies reaching 79% of end use demand (74% of grid-scale generation).

APA

Energy Innovation (n.d.). Evaluating Policies for California to Reach 55 Percent Reductions by 2030 using the Energy Policy Simulator. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/California-Energy-Policy-Simulator-55-Percent-Reduction-revised-30-Aug-2022.pdf

Chicago

Energy Innovation. Evaluating Policies for California to Reach 55 Percent Reductions by 2030 using the Energy Policy Simulator. n.d. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/California-Energy-Policy-Simulator-55-Percent-Reduction-revised-30-Aug-2022.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Energy Innovation |title=Evaluating Policies for California to Reach 55 Percent Reductions by 2030 using the Energy Policy Simulator |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/California-Energy-Policy-Simulator-55-Percent-Reduction-revised-30-Aug-2022.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{energyinnovationndevaluating, author = {{Energy Innovation}}, title = {{Evaluating Policies for California to Reach 55 Percent Reductions by 2030 using the Energy Policy Simulator}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/California-Energy-Policy-Simulator-55-Percent-Reduction-revised-30-Aug-2022.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }