China’s ‘spare’ solar capacity offers climate and energy access opportunity

The report identifies a significant gap between global solar panel manufacturing capacity and projected deployment, resulting in 'spare' capacity of 3,837 GW between 2024 and 2030. Utilizing this surplus could enable the world to exceed the COP28 target of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030, reaching 13,345 GW (a 21% excess). The document argues that deploying just one-seventh of this spare capacity could meet the electricity demand growth and extend basic energy access to the entire populations of 88 analyzed Global South countries. It highlights that 80-85% of manufacturing is based in China, where companies are already facing investment delays and layoffs due to under-deployment. The report suggests a 'win-win-win' scenario where China maintains its industry, Global South nations gain energy independence and access, and developed nations fulfill their climate finance responsibilities.

• There is a substantial surplus in solar panel manufacturing capacity compared to projected deployment from 2024 to 2030. The total feasible manufacturing output is estimated at 7,310 GW, while projected deployment is only 3,473 GW, leaving 'spare' capacity of 3,837 GW.
• Utilizing all available 'spare' solar capacity would allow the world to exceed the COP28 target of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030. While projected deployment would reach 9,513 GW, adding the spare capacity would result in 13,345 GW by 2030, exceeding the 11,000 GW target by 21%.
• A small fraction of the spare solar capacity could significantly improve energy access in the Global South. Deploying just one-seventh of the 3,837 GW surplus (approximately 566 GW) could meet projected electricity demand growth and provide basic electricity access to the entire populations of 88 analyzed countries.
• The solar manufacturing industry is heavily concentrated in China, which accounts for 80-85% of global capacity. This concentration makes Chinese companies particularly vulnerable to the current under-deployment, leading to layoffs and cancelled investments, such as an estimated US$ 8.3 billion in planned investments cancelled or delayed in Q1 2024.
• Economic barriers, specifically the high cost of capital for renewable energy projects in developing countries—which is three- to five-fold higher than in the Global North—hinder the energy transition in the Global South despite the availability of cheap solar panels.

APA

Hawkins, S., Copsey, L., Fulghum, N., Zhang, S., Sucahyo, R., & Bruce-Lockhart, C. (2024). China’s ‘spare’ solar capacity offers climate and energy access opportunity. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/china-spare-solar-climate-energy-opportunity

Chicago

Hawkins, Sam, Libby Copsey, Nicolas Fulghum, Shiyao Zhang, Rini Sucahyo, and Chelsea Bruce-Lockhart. China’s ‘spare’ solar capacity offers climate and energy access opportunity. Ember, 2024. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/china-spare-solar-climate-energy-opportunity.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Hawkins |first1=Sam |last2=Copsey |first2=Libby |last3=Fulghum |first3=Nicolas |last4=Zhang |first4=Shiyao |last5=Sucahyo |first5=Rini |last6=Bruce-Lockhart |first6=Chelsea |title=China’s ‘spare’ solar capacity offers climate and energy access opportunity |publisher=Ember |date=12 June 2024 |url=https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/china-spare-solar-climate-energy-opportunity |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{hawkins2024chinas, author = {Hawkins, Sam and Copsey, Libby and Fulghum, Nicolas and Zhang, Shiyao and Sucahyo, Rini and Bruce-Lockhart, Chelsea}, title = {{China’s ‘spare’ solar capacity offers climate and energy access opportunity}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2024}, month = jun, url = {https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/china-spare-solar-climate-energy-opportunity}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }