How an accounting shift could conceal millions of tonnes of coal mine emissions

This report by Ember examines the risks associated with a proposed shift in Australia's emissions reporting for open-cut coal mines, moving from state-based average emission factors (Method 1) to unverified company-led estimates (Method 2). The analysis of ten mines suggests that this shift allows companies to significantly under-report fugitive methane emissions, potentially erasing millions of tonnes of CO2-e from the national inventory without actual mitigation.

• The transition from state-based emission factors (Method 1) to company-led estimates (Method 2) has led to a significant reduction in reported emissions for several Australian coal mines. Specifically, three mines shifted their methodology since the Safeguard Mechanism began, resulting in the erasure of nearly 8.5 million tonnes of CO2-e from reporting.
• Company-led estimates can produce results drastically lower than state-based averages. For example, the Carmichael mine's emissions estimate is 135 times smaller than the recommended state-based average in Queensland. Other mines owned by Whitehaven have reported emissions factors up to 60 times lower than the regional default.
• The report identifies specific emissions reductions attributed to the methodology shift at three sites: Hunter Valley Operations reduced its estimate by 5.5 million tonnes since 2016, Maules Creek reduced reporting by over 1.8 million tonnes of CO2-e since 2021, and Caval Ridge reduced nearly half a million tonnes in 2021 alone.
• The current Method 2 framework lacks transparency and oversight, as estimates do not require independent review, top-down verification, or external validation, and are often not made public. This allows mines to use outdated data; for instance, Mount Pleasant uses estimates from a previous owner collected 12 years before current operations began.
• Expanding the use of Method 2 without implementing the Climate Change Authority's (CCA) recommended top-down verification systems could severely undermine the Safeguard Mechanism. The reporting shift at Caval Ridge alone is estimated to be equivalent to erasing more than the annual median emissions for a coal mine reporting to the Safeguard Mechanism.
• Future expansions of coal mining under unverified reporting could lead to massive under-reporting. If expansion plans are approved, under-regulated reporting could erase 47 million tonnes of CO2-e from just two coal mines by 2050. For the Carmichael mine, the difference in cumulative reporting could exceed 100 million tonnes of CO2-e if production reaches originally proposed levels.

APA

Wright, C. (2024). How an accounting shift could conceal millions of tonnes of coal mine emissions. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/06/Report-Self-led-estimates-conceal-millions-of-tonnes-of-CO2-e-June-20-2024-1.pdf

Chicago

Wright, Chris. How an accounting shift could conceal millions of tonnes of coal mine emissions. Ember, 2024. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/06/Report-Self-led-estimates-conceal-millions-of-tonnes-of-CO2-e-June-20-2024-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Wright |first1=Chris |title=How an accounting shift could conceal millions of tonnes of coal mine emissions |publisher=Ember |date=20 June 2024 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/06/Report-Self-led-estimates-conceal-millions-of-tonnes-of-CO2-e-June-20-2024-1.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{wright2024how, author = {Wright, Chris}, title = {{How an accounting shift could conceal millions of tonnes of coal mine emissions}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2024}, month = jun, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/06/Report-Self-led-estimates-conceal-millions-of-tonnes-of-CO2-e-June-20-2024-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }