Money on the line: scaling electricity interconnection for Europe's energy future

The report finds that the EU is not on track to meet its 2030 interconnection targets, with 80% of the power system expected to miss the goal. To reach an optimal grid by 2040, Europe needs to nearly double its interconnection capacity, adding 151 GW. This expansion requires an estimated €150 billion in investment, leaving a €30 billion public funding gap in the proposed 2028-2034 Connecting Europe Facility for Energy (CEF-E) budget.

• The majority of the EU power system is projected to fail the 2030 interconnection target of 15% import capacity relative to domestic generation. Specifically, 11 Member States—including France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, Portugal, and Greece—are expected to have import capacities below this threshold by 2030.
• To achieve an optimal pan-European grid by 2040, total interconnection capacity must reach 318 GW, requiring an addition of 151 GW between 2030 and 2040. Currently, there is a gap of 55 GW in projects that have yet to be proposed, with the most significant needs identified in Eastern Europe and the Nordics.
• The estimated cost for the 151 GW capacity increase needed by 2040 is at least €150 billion. Based on historical co-financing rates, this would require €47 billion in grants from the next CEF-E; however, the current proposal for 2028-2034 provides only €17 billion, resulting in a €30 billion public funding gap.
• Expanding cross-border transmission is highly cost-effective, with estimates suggesting that every euro invested in this capacity by 2040 will reduce generation costs by more than two euros.
• Certain EU Member States are already on track to meet or exceed the 15% interconnection target by 2030, including 14 states that had already met it by the end of 2024. Notable examples include the Baltic states, which show interconnection levels between 40% and 60% as of 2025.

APA

Geneletti, G., & Cremona, E. (2025). Money on the line: scaling electricity interconnection for Europe's energy future. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/12/Money-on-the-line-scaling-electricity-interconnection-for-Europes-energy-future.pdf

Chicago

Geneletti, Gianluca, and Elisabeth Cremona. Money on the line: scaling electricity interconnection for Europe's energy future. Ember, 2025. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/12/Money-on-the-line-scaling-electricity-interconnection-for-Europes-energy-future.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Geneletti |first1=Gianluca |last2=Cremona |first2=Elisabeth |title=Money on the line: scaling electricity interconnection for Europe's energy future |publisher=Ember |date=1 December 2025 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/12/Money-on-the-line-scaling-electricity-interconnection-for-Europes-energy-future.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{geneletti2025money, author = {Geneletti, Gianluca and Cremona, Elisabeth}, title = {{Money on the line: scaling electricity interconnection for Europe's energy future}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2025}, month = dec, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/12/Money-on-the-line-scaling-electricity-interconnection-for-Europes-energy-future.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }