Money on the line: scaling electricity interconnection for Europe's energy future

This report by Ember assesses the current state and future requirements of Europe's electricity interconnection. It finds that the EU is not on track to meet its 2030 interconnection targets, with 80% of the power system expected to miss the goal. To reach an optimal grid by 2040, Europe needs to nearly double its interconnection capacity, adding 151 GW, which requires an estimated €150 billion in investment. The report identifies a €30 billion public funding gap in the proposed Connecting Europe Facility for Energy (CEF-E) budget for 2028-2034, suggesting that this gap must be filled by EU loans and private funding to ensure energy security and cost-effectiveness.

• The European Union is failing to meet its 2030 interconnection targets, with 80% of the power system expected to miss the goal. Specifically, 11 Member States—including France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, Portugal, and Greece—are projected to have import capacity representing less than 15% of their domestic electricity generation by 2030.
• To achieve an optimal pan-European grid by 2040, total interconnection capacity must reach 318 GW. Given that capacity is expected to be 167 GW by 2030 (up from 116 GW in 2024), an additional 151 GW must be added during the 2030s. Currently, there is a gap of approximately 55 GW of projects that have yet to be proposed.
• There is a projected €30 billion public funding gap to support the most efficient expansion of electricity interconnections by 2040. While the proposed 2028-2034 Connecting Europe Facility for Energy (CEF-E) budget expects €17 billion in grants, the total cost to build the required 151 GW of capacity is estimated at at least €150 billion.
• Expanding cross-border transmission is highly cost-effective; it is estimated that by 2040, every euro invested in this expansion will reduce generation costs by more than two euros.
• Certain regions and countries face significant interconnection challenges. Spain and Portugal are projected to reach only 4.3% and 10% interconnection respectively by 2030. Italy is expected to reach only 4% by 2030, expanding its import capacity by only 1.2 GW. Conversely, the Baltic states show high interconnectivity levels between 40% and 60% as of 2025.
• The report highlights the critical role of the Connecting Europe Facility forS (CEF-E) and other financial instruments. On average, CEF-E covers about 31.5% of the total investment cost for cross-border transmission lines. Examples of blended funding include the €3.1 billion Biscay Gulf interconnector, which received €0.6 billion from CEF-E and a €1.6 billion loan from the European Investment Bank (EIB).

APA

Geneletti, G., & Cremona, E. (2025). Money on the line: scaling electricity interconnection for Europe's energy future. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/12/Money-on-the-line-scaling-electricity-interconnection-for-Europes-energy-future.pdf

Chicago

Geneletti, Gianluca, and Elisabeth Cremona. Money on the line: scaling electricity interconnection for Europe's energy future. Ember, 2025. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/12/Money-on-the-line-scaling-electricity-interconnection-for-Europes-energy-future.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Geneletti |first1=Gianluca |last2=Cremona |first2=Elisabeth |title=Money on the line: scaling electricity interconnection for Europe's energy future |publisher=Ember |date=1 December 2025 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/12/Money-on-the-line-scaling-electricity-interconnection-for-Europes-energy-future.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{geneletti2025money, author = {Geneletti, Gianluca and Cremona, Elisabeth}, title = {{Money on the line: scaling electricity interconnection for Europe's energy future}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2025}, month = dec, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/12/Money-on-the-line-scaling-electricity-interconnection-for-Europes-energy-future.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }