Methodology Estimating subsidies for deploying carbon capture at Drax biomass power station

This report outlines the methodology used by Ember to estimate the annual subsidies required to deploy Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) at the Drax biomass power station. It details the calculation of Reference and Strike Prices for a dual-Contract for Difference (CfD) covering both electricity (CfDe) and carbon (CfDc), while noting the high degree of uncertainty due to a lack of commercial-scale power-BECCS projects.

• Ember's updated estimate for the annual subsidies required per BECCS unit at Drax has increased to £591 million in 2023 prices, up from a January 2024 estimate of £425 million per unit.
• To calculate the electricity component (CfDe) of the dual-CfD, Ember uses a Strike Price of £147/MWh (in 2023 prices) based on the 2027-31 large-scale biomass generators arrangements, and a Reference Price based on the UK Government's projected mean wholesale price for baseload electricity from 2030 to 2050.
• For the carbon component (CfDc), Ember uses the UK Government's target maximum greenhouse gas removal price of £200 per tonne of CO2e as a proxy for the Strike Price. The Reference Price is based on the UK Government's 'Net Zero Strategy Aligned carbon prices' for 2030 to 2050, converted to 2023 prices.
• The methodology assumes a deployment timeline where Drax converts one unit in 2030, a second in 2035, a third in 2040, and a fourth in 2045, although an accelerated timeline proposed by Drax could increase total subsidies between 2030 and 2050.
• The report notes significant uncertainty in BECCS cost estimates because there are no commercial-scale power-BECCS projects globally. Other estimates for 2030 BECCS costs include a 'reasonable profit' price of £212 ($265) per tonne from an industry survey and a Climate Change Committee estimate of £344 per tonne.

APA

Ember (n.d.). Methodology Estimating subsidies for deploying carbon capture at Drax biomass power station. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/11/GGRS-Methodology-1.pdf

Chicago

Ember. Methodology Estimating subsidies for deploying carbon capture at Drax biomass power station. n.d. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/11/GGRS-Methodology-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Ember |title=Methodology Estimating subsidies for deploying carbon capture at Drax biomass power station |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/11/GGRS-Methodology-1.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{emberndmethodology, author = {{Ember}}, title = {{Methodology Estimating subsidies for deploying carbon capture at Drax biomass power station}}, institution = {Ember}, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/11/GGRS-Methodology-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }