Unlocking the energy transition in Colombia: Strategies to reduce gas dependency

This report by Ember and Transforma analyses Colombia's declining domestic gas production and the resulting supply deficit projected to begin in 2030. It proposes a strategy to reduce gas dependency through energy efficiency in the industrial sector and the electrification of cooking and water heating in the residential sector, arguing that these measures can mitigate the projected deficit and avoid significant import costs.

• Colombia is projected to face a gas supply deficit starting in 2030, as domestic production and installed import capacity will be insufficient to meet demand. The deficit is estimated at 14,556 GBtu in 2030 and could grow to 1.2 million GBtu between 2030 and 2038. By 2034, the deficit could equal the combined total demand of the industrial and residential sectors.
• Implementing energy efficiency measures in industrial direct and indirect heating processes could reduce gas demand by approximately 14% (over 14,000 GBtu per year) by 2030. For the period 2030-2039, the projected reduction would be 148,000 GBtu.
• Electrifying residential cooking and water heating offers significant demand reduction. Replacing gas stoves with electric or induction alternatives in 10% of grid-connected households (1.2 million stoves) would reduce 2030 consumption by approximately 6,061 GBtu, keeping residential demand at 2024 levels. Replacing 30% of water heaters (32,000 units) would further reduce consumption by 1,020 GBtu by 2030.
• Combined energy efficiency and electrification measures could reduce gas demand in 2030 by 21,545 GBtu, which is 1.5 times the projected deficit for that year. Over a ten-year period, these actions could reduce consumption by over 220,000 GBtu and avoid $2 billion USD in gas import costs.
• The industrial sector's gas use is characterized by a high reliance on fossil-fuel-related activities; oil refining and coal coking accounted for an average of 44% of industrial gas use over the last decade.
• Residential gas demand is heavily driven by cooking, which accounts for more than 95% of the sector's demand. This dependence is reinforced by subsidies for low-income households (strata 1, 2, and 3), which in 2024 amounted to 1.41 trillion Colombian pesos, with approximately 70% funded by the national budget.
• The report argues against fracking as a solution to the gas deficit, citing high investment costs, long development times, and environmental risks to water and ecosystems. Instead, it suggests using LNG imports and regasification (such as the Coveñas and Ballena projects) as temporary bridges to ensure security while transitioning.
• To achieve a just transition, the report recommends a national programme to replace domestic appliances, promoting gas-free new homes, and redirecting gas subsidies toward electrification. It also suggests creating a Just Transition and Energy Conversion Fund to support job conversion in gas-intensive industries.

APA

Suárez, W., Rodas, J. F. P., Vásquez, M. P., & Valencia, V. (2025). Unlocking the energy transition in Colombia: Strategies to reduce gas dependency. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/12/EN-Report-Unlocking-the-energy-transition-in-Colombia_Strategies-to-reduce-gas-dependency.pdf

Chicago

Suárez, Wilmar, Juan Felipe Parra Rodas, María Paulina Vásquez, and Verónica Valencia. Unlocking the energy transition in Colombia: Strategies to reduce gas dependency. Ember, 2025. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/12/EN-Report-Unlocking-the-energy-transition-in-Colombia_Strategies-to-reduce-gas-dependency.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Suárez |first1=Wilmar |last2=Rodas |first2=Juan Felipe Parra |last3=Vásquez |first3=María Paulina |last4=Valencia |first4=Verónica |title=Unlocking the energy transition in Colombia: Strategies to reduce gas dependency |publisher=Ember |date=4 December 2025 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/12/EN-Report-Unlocking-the-energy-transition-in-Colombia_Strategies-to-reduce-gas-dependency.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{surez2025unlocking, author = {Suárez, Wilmar and Rodas, Juan Felipe Parra and Vásquez, María Paulina and Valencia, Verónica}, title = {{Unlocking the energy transition in Colombia: Strategies to reduce gas dependency}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2025}, month = dec, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/12/EN-Report-Unlocking-the-energy-transition-in-Colombia_Strategies-to-reduce-gas-dependency.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }