Electrification Data Methodology 2024 Overview

The 'Electrification Data Methodology 2024 Overview' by Ember describes the technical framework used to quantify the impact of electrification in the road transport and residential heating sectors. The methodology focuses on calculating electricity demand, primary fossil fuel displacement, and emissions displaced, utilizing real-world data on vehicle stocks, heat pump deployment, and energy efficiency factors.

• Ember calculates four primary output metrics to quantify electrification's impact on national energy balances: electricity demand from electrification technologies (specifically electric vehicles and residential heat pumps) in GWh, the percentage share of this demand relative to total electricity demand, primary fossil fuel consumption displaced in GWh and barrels of oil, and emissions displaced in CO2 equivalent.
• To estimate electricity consumption for electric vehicles (EVs), Ember uses a formula incorporating the number of EVs on the road, average distance travelled per vehicle, and the electricity required per unit of distance, which includes a 12% charging loss based on sources from 2017.
• The methodology accounts for 'mileage decay', the phenomenon where the annual distance travelled by a vehicle decreases over time. Because EV fleets are relatively new, Ember uses IEA decay curves and the average age of the total vehicle fleet to estimate the weighted average of total vehicle-km for EVs versus internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.
• Fossil fuel displacement for transport is calculated by comparing the primary fossil fuel needed for an ICE car against the primary fossil fuel input required to generate the electricity for an EV. This calculation assumes battery electric vehicles have an 89% average efficiency and ICE cars have a 20% average efficiency, while also accounting for a 15% energy loss during petroleum production and transportation.
• For residential heating, electricity consumption for heat pumps is determined by dividing the useful energy demand per household by the seasonal coefficient of performance (SCOP), multiplied by the heat pump stock. The useful energy demand is derived by multiplying average final energy consumption for residential heating by an efficiency factor, which is a weighted average of assumed fuel efficiencies (81.5% for fossil fuels and 100% for electricity/alternatives).
• The methodology for heat pump fossil fuel displacement assumes that heat pumps primarily replace gas boilers. It adds a 10% loss for the transformation and transportation of primary gas energy to the final energy consumption of a household to determine the total primary fossil fuel consumption avoided.
• Emissions displacement calculations for both transport and heating only consider operational energy consumption and exclude emissions from the manufacturing of electric vehicles or heat pumps. For transport, a lifecycle emissions factor of 304 kg/MWh is applied to mobile gasoline; for heating, a factor of 201.96 kg/MWh is applied to stationary natural gas combustion.

APA

Ember (2024). Electrification Data Methodology 2024 Overview. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/10/Electrification-Data-2024-Methodology-.pdf

Chicago

Ember. Electrification Data Methodology 2024 Overview. 2024. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/10/Electrification-Data-2024-Methodology-.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Ember |title=Electrification Data Methodology 2024 Overview |date=2024 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/10/Electrification-Data-2024-Methodology-.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ember2024electrification, author = {{Ember}}, title = {{Electrification Data Methodology 2024 Overview}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2024}, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/10/Electrification-Data-2024-Methodology-.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }