Electrification Data Methodology 2024 Overview

The 2024 Electrification Data Methodology describes how Ember calculates the energy and emissions impacts of electric vehicles (EVs) and residential heat pumps. The methodology focuses on operational energy use, calculating the 'displaced' primary fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emissions by comparing the energy required for electrification technologies against the fossil fuel alternatives they replace. For transport, the model accounts for vehicle stocks, mileage decay, and charging losses. For residential heating, it utilizes final energy consumption data, boiler efficiency factors, and seasonal coefficients of performance (SCOP). The analysis covers the European Union and the United Kingdom, utilizing data from sources such as Eurostat, the IEA, and the UK Department for Transport.

• Ember calculates the impact of electrification using four primary output metrics: electricity demand from electrification technologies (GWh), the share of that demand relative to total electricity demand (%), primary fossil fuel consumption displaced (GWh and barrels of oil), and emissions displaced (CO2 equivalent).
• To estimate electricity demand for electric vehicles, the methodology incorporates a 'mileage decay' concept from the IEA, recognizing that the annual distance travelled by a vehicle typically decreases over time, which is particularly relevant for the relatively new EV fleet.
• The calculation for fossil fuel displacement in transport assumes that battery electric vehicles have an average efficiency of 89% (including regenerative braking and charging loss), while internal combustion engine (ICE) cars average 20% efficiency.
• The methodology applies a 12% charging loss to the electricity required to drive one unit of distance for electric vehicles.
• For residential heating, the 'useful energy demand' is derived by multiplying the average final energy consumption for residential heating per household by an energy efficiency factor, which is a weighted average of assumed fuel efficiencies: 81.5% for fossil fuels and 100% for electricity/alternatives.
• The analysis of residential heating displacement assumes that approximately 10% of total primary gas energy is lost during transformation and transportation.
• The methodology explicitly excludes the energy and emissions associated with the manufacturing of electric vehicles and heat pumps, focusing only on operational level consumption.
• For the United Kingdom, where specific domestic heating data is missing, Ember interpolates the share of heat in final energy consumption using a historical average of 76%.

APA

Ember (2024). Electrification Data Methodology 2024 Overview. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/10/Electrification-Data-2024-Methodology-.pdf

Chicago

Ember. Electrification Data Methodology 2024 Overview. 2024. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/10/Electrification-Data-2024-Methodology-.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Ember |title=Electrification Data Methodology 2024 Overview |date=2024 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/10/Electrification-Data-2024-Methodology-.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ember2024electrification, author = {{Ember}}, title = {{Electrification Data Methodology 2024 Overview}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2024}, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/10/Electrification-Data-2024-Methodology-.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }