Climate of Cooperation

This report by Sandbag assesses the 2017 Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) deal, which sets emission reduction targets for non-ETS sectors in the EU for 2021-2030. The authors argue that the current -30% target is insufficient for Paris Agreement goals and advocate for project-based cooperation between Member States to achieve reductions cost-effectively and avoid carbon lock-in in lower-income countries.

• The Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) target of -30% for non-ETS sectors by 2030 is insufficient to align with the Paris Agreement and the EU's long-term goal of 80% to 95% reductions by 2050. To maintain a linear trajectory toward these goals, the 2030 target would need to be increased to at least -40%.
• When accounting for all available flexibilities, the EU28 is only required to achieve an average of 14 Mt CO2eq. in additional annual reductions beyond current measures, which represents approximately 0.5% of 2005 emissions.
• The ESR budget and its associated flexibilities may allow for an emission trajectory that only reaches a 26.6% reduction by 2030, potentially causing the EU to miss its overall -40% reduction target under the Paris Agreement unless the ETS sectors overachieve.
• Project-based cooperation is recommended as the preferred flexibility mechanism because it is the only option that guarantees additional reductions. It allows higher-income Member States with stringent targets to finance cost-effective reductions in lower-income Member States, preventing carbon lock-in and facilitating technology transfer.
• Demand for Annual Emission Allocations (AEAs) varies by scenario: 75 million AEAs if external flexibilities are used, 208 million if they are not, and up to 644 million under the Reference Scenario. Demand is expected primarily from smaller, higher-income Member States, particularly the Benelux countries.
• Potential supply of AEAs is highly dependent on the scenario: only 96 million under WEM projections, 434 million under the Reference Scenario, and up to 614 million under the EUCO30 scenario if lower-income countries pursue further reductions.
• In Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary, significant reduction potential exists in the building sector through energy efficiency and in the waste sector by phasing out landfilling to reduce methane emissions.
• Romania has a specific opportunity to reduce fugitive methane emissions from natural gas extraction, where its emission rate (1.2%) is significantly higher than the EU average (0.2%). The report suggests the Netherlands could provide finance and know-how for such projects.
• The ESR's Safety Reserve, totaling up to 105 million AEAs, risks undermining incentives for some lower-income states. Analysis suggests a second distribution round could result in the entire reserve going to only four countries: Italy, Poland, Slovakia, and Cyprus.
• The banking limitation introduced in the ESR is described as purely symbolical and unlikely to be triggered, meaning it does not effectively safeguard the 2030 target.

APA

Ember (n.d.). Climate of Cooperation. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/12/Climate-of-Cooperation-ESR-report-Sandbag-March-2018.pdf

Chicago

Ember. Climate of Cooperation. n.d. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/12/Climate-of-Cooperation-ESR-report-Sandbag-March-2018.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Ember |title=Climate of Cooperation |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/12/Climate-of-Cooperation-ESR-report-Sandbag-March-2018.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{emberndclimate, author = {{Ember}}, title = {{Climate of Cooperation}}, institution = {Ember}, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/12/Climate-of-Cooperation-ESR-report-Sandbag-March-2018.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }