The cash cow has stopped giving: Are Germany’s lignite plants now worthless?

The report finds that German lignite plants became significantly unprofitable in the first half of 2019, with the entire fleet losing €664 million. Old units (pre-1990) were hardest hit, with gross profits falling 62% to €188 million. The analysis suggests that 24/7 baseload operation is no longer economic and predicts a €1.8 billion loss for old units between 2020 and 2022. Consequently, the author recommends that the German government push for faster closures, reject excessive compensation claims, and implement a minimum carbon price to prevent future profitability.

• The gross profit of the German lignite fleet decreased by 54% in the first half of 2019, dropping from €1109 million in the first half of 2018 to €513 million. Old lignite units built before 1990 experienced a more severe decline of 62%, with profits falling from €500 million to €188 million.
• In the first half of 2019, the German lignite fleet recorded a total loss of €664 million, compared to a loss of €68 million in the first half of 2018. No single lignite unit was able to cover its full fixed costs during this period; old units lost €476 million and new units (post-1990) lost €188 million.
• Lignite plants have ceased to operate as 24/7 baseload power. Between March and June 2019, 49% of hours were uneconomic for old lignite plants, and 27% of hours were uneconomic for new lignite plants.
• Medium-term projections for 2020-2022 indicate that old lignite units will remain loss-making, with an estimated loss of €1.8 billion. New lignite plants are expected to roughly break even, covering approximately 112% of their full fixed costs.
• The report recommends that policymakers accelerate the closure of lignite plants and resist high compensation claims. It suggests the German government establish a minimum carbon price of at least €30/tonne to ensure lignite does not return to profitability and to potentially move the phase-out date closer to 2030 from 2038.

APA

Jones, D. (2019). The cash cow has stopped giving: Are Germany’s lignite plants now worthless? Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2020/03/2019-Cash-Cow-report.pdf

Chicago

Jones, Dave. The cash cow has stopped giving: Are Germany’s lignite plants now worthless? Ember, 2019. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2020/03/2019-Cash-Cow-report.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Jones |first1=Dave |title=The cash cow has stopped giving: Are Germany’s lignite plants now worthless? |publisher=Ember |date=July 2019 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2020/03/2019-Cash-Cow-report.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{jones2019cash, author = {Jones, Dave}, title = {{The cash cow has stopped giving: Are Germany’s lignite plants now worthless?}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2019}, month = jul, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2020/03/2019-Cash-Cow-report.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }