Getting UK offshore wind back into fighting shape

The UK faces a capacity shortfall of approximately 22 GW to meet its 2030 offshore wind targets. While a pipeline of 93 GW exists, the report argues that the current Contracts for Difference (CfD) auction parameters and budgets are insufficient. It recommends a 25% increase in the AR6 auction budget to secure an additional 1 GW of capacity and suggests shifting the CfD focus from price competition to delivery scale to protect the UK from volatile gas markets.

• The UK has a significant capacity gap to meet its 2030 offshore wind targets. With 14.7 GW installed and 13.3 GW committed or under construction, there is a shortfall of approximately 22 GW needed to reach the target of 50 GW (or the Labour government's signaled 55 GW plus 5 GW of floating wind).
• The current budget and parameters for the AR6 auction are projected to support only 3-5 GW of capacity, which is roughly half of the 10 GW required from the 2024 and 2025 auctions to bridge the gap.
• Increasing the AR6 budget by 25% could provide an additional 1 GW of capacity. Every 1 GW of installed offshore wind is estimated to displace enough annual fossil gas consumption to heat 630,000 homes.
• The Contracts for Difference (CfD) mechanism's focus on driving down strike prices has created risks for developers. Prices fell from £150/MWh to £37.35/MWh over less than a decade, but subsequent inflationary pressures and supply chain competition have threatened project viability, as seen with the pausing of the 1.4 GW Norfolk Boreas wind farm.
• UK offshore wind is significantly more cost-effective than fossil gas, with a levelised cost currently 60% cheaper, and a government forecast to be 70% cheaper by 2030.
• The primary constraint on development is policy and cost rather than the availability of sites, as the total pipeline of potential capacity is up to 93 GW.
• Developers are beginning to adopt innovative revenue models to bypass subsidy limitations, such as the 'revenue stack' approach used by the Seagreen and Moray West wind farms, where only part of the project uses the CfD process while the rest is sold on the wholesale market.

APA

Ember (2024). Getting UK offshore wind back into fighting shape. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/uk-offshore-wind

Chicago

Ember. Getting UK offshore wind back into fighting shape. 2024. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/uk-offshore-wind.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Ember |title=Getting UK offshore wind back into fighting shape |date=11 July 2024 |url=https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/uk-offshore-wind |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ember2024getting, author = {{Ember}}, title = {{Getting UK offshore wind back into fighting shape}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2024}, month = jul, url = {https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/uk-offshore-wind}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }