Coal to Clean

This report by Ember analyzes the UK's transition away from coal power, concluding that the country can achieve its 2025 coal phase-out without the construction of new large gas-fired power plants. The analysis suggests that renewables, interconnectors, and small-scale technology will replace coal capacity, allowing the UK to bypass a 'gas bridge' to clean power.

• The UK is projected to complete its coal phase-out by 2025 without needing new large gas plants. While 10 large gas plants with 12GW capacity applied for 15-year contracts in February 2018, and another five with 10GW capacity are preparing to apply, none have successfully bid for a capacity contract to date.
• Renewable energy sources are expected to fully replace coal by 2025. By that year, electricity output from renewables is forecast to exceed the highest annual coal generation of this century, which was 142 TWh in 2006. Offshore wind is identified as the primary driver of growth between 2017 and 2025, with 95% of the required growth already under construction or contracted.
• The UK's grid requirements are shifting toward capacity that runs infrequently, making large gas plants costly and inefficient. Coal plants had an average load factor of 19% in 2017, and replacements are estimated to require a load factor of only 3% by 2025 under conservative assumptions.
• The decarbonization of the UK electricity system relies heavily on electricity imports, with interconnectors forecast to provide 22% of electricity by 2025. If these imports do not materialize, carbon emissions could be approximately 70MT higher than BEIS projections by the end of 2025, potentially jeopardizing legally binding carbon budgets.
• To further reduce gas emissions and ensure grid stability, the report recommends several policy actions: avoiding new build large gas, extending the 450gCO2/kWh instantaneous emission limit to all new build generation over 1MW to limit small peaking gas, and establishing an innovation fund for long-term electricity storage to handle seasonal renewables lulls.

APA

Moore, C., MacDonald, P., & Jones, D. (2018). Coal to Clean. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/coal-to-clean

Chicago

Moore, Charles, Phil MacDonald, and Dave Jones. Coal to Clean. Ember, 2018. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/coal-to-clean.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Moore |first1=Charles |last2=MacDonald |first2=Phil |last3=Jones |first3=Dave |title=Coal to Clean |publisher=Ember |date=13 April 2018 |url=https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/coal-to-clean |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{moore2018coal, author = {Moore, Charles and MacDonald, Phil and Jones, Dave}, title = {{Coal to Clean}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2018}, month = apr, url = {https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/coal-to-clean}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }