The Growth in Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Commercial Aviation

The document analyzes the climate impact of commercial aviation, noting that while aircraft efficiency has improved, the rapid growth of the industry—particularly in developing nations—continues to drive up total emissions. It details the contributions of CO2 and non-CO2 effects like contrails, the regulatory landscape including ICAO standards, and the projected recovery of air traffic following the COVID-19 pandemic.

• Commercial aviation's total climate impact is estimated to have accounted for 3.5 percent of total anthropogenic warming in 2011 and likely remained at that level in 2018.
• Carbon dioxide is the primary emission, making up about 70 percent of exhaust, but contrail-induced cirrus clouds create a warming effect that can be up to three times the impact of CO2.
• Global CO2 emissions from commercial aviation rose from 707 million tons in 2013 to 920 million tons in 2019, an increase of approximately 30 percent over six years.
• The United States has a disproportionately high impact on aviation emissions; its per capita jet fuel consumption for domestic and international flights was six times the world average and 37.5 times that of India in 2016.
• The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) established CO2 emission standards for new aircraft requiring an average 4 percent reduction in cruise fuel consumption compared to 2015 levels, with full application for all new deliveries by January 1, 2028.
• Despite the severe contraction caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasts suggest pre-pandemic traffic levels will fully recover by 2025 at the latest, with commercial aircraft emissions potentially tripling by 2050.
• Air freight, while smaller than passenger travel, is a significant contributor to growth, representing 35 percent of world trade by value and showing resilient growth driven by e-commerce.

APA

Environmental and Energy Study Institute (2022). The Growth in Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Commercial Aviation. https://www.eesi.org/files/IssueBrief_Climate_Impacts_Aviation_2019rev2022.pdf

Chicago

Environmental and Energy Study Institute. The Growth in Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Commercial Aviation. 2022. https://www.eesi.org/files/IssueBrief_Climate_Impacts_Aviation_2019rev2022.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Environmental and Energy Study Institute |title=The Growth in Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Commercial Aviation |date=June 2022 |url=https://www.eesi.org/files/IssueBrief_Climate_Impacts_Aviation_2019rev2022.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{environmentalandenergystudyinstitute2022growth, author = {{Environmental and Energy Study Institute}}, title = {{The Growth in Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Commercial Aviation}}, institution = {Environmental and Energy Study Institute}, year = {2022}, month = jun, url = {https://www.eesi.org/files/IssueBrief_Climate_Impacts_Aviation_2019rev2022.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }