The Growth in Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Commercial Aviation

The document analyzes the growth of commercial aviation and its contribution to climate change. It details the composition of aircraft emissions, the significant warming effect of contrail-induced cirrus clouds, and the projected recovery of air traffic following the COVID-19 pandemic. While aircraft efficiency has improved, the overall volume of passengers and freight is expected to increase, potentially tripling emissions by 2050. The brief also discusses regulatory efforts, such as ICAO's CO2 standards, and the disproportionate per capita fuel consumption in the United States.

• Commercial aviation's climate impact is driven by both CO2 and non-CO2 effects. CO2 makes up about 70 percent of exhaust, while contrail-induced cirrus clouds—formed from water vapor and particulates—can produce a warming effect up to three times that of CO2. Updated 2021 analysis suggests aviation's total climate impact was 3.5 percent of total anthropogenic warming in 2011 and likely remained the same in 2018.
• Global CO2 emissions from commercial aviation grew significantly before the pandemic, rising from 707 million tons in 2013 to 920 million tons in 2019. If the industry were a country, its 2019 GHG emissions would rank sixth globally, positioned between Japan and Germany.
• Despite improvements in aircraft efficiency—such as a 77 percent reduction in energy intensity per passenger mile in the U.S. between 1970 and 2019—the overall growth in traffic threatens to offset these gains. Commercial aircraft emissions could triple by 2050 due to projected growth in passenger and freight travel.
• The United States has a disproportionately high impact on aviation emissions, accounting for 23 percent of the 2017 global CO2 total. In 2016, U.S. per capita jet fuel consumption for domestic and international flights was six times the world average and 37.5 times that of India.
• The COVID-19 pandemic caused the most severe contraction in aviation history, with revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) falling 94 percent in April 2020 compared to April 2019. However, various forecasts predict a full recovery to pre-pandemic traffic levels by 2025 at the latest.
• International aviation, which comprised 62 percent of pre-pandemic global commercial aviation CO2 emissions, was not addressed by the Paris Climate Agreement. ICAO projects that GHG emissions from this sector could increase by two to four times 2015 levels by 2050.
• Regulatory efforts include ICAO's CO2 emission standards for new aircraft, which require an average four percent reduction in cruise fuel consumption compared to 2015 performance. The U.S. EPA established a final rule matching these ICAO standards on January 11, 2021.

APA

Overton, J. (2022). The Growth in Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Commercial Aviation. Environmental and Energy Study Institute. https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/fact-sheet-the-growth-in-greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-commercial-aviation

Chicago

Overton, Jeff. The Growth in Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Commercial Aviation. Environmental and Energy Study Institute, 2022. https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/fact-sheet-the-growth-in-greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-commercial-aviation.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Overton |first1=Jeff |title=The Growth in Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Commercial Aviation |publisher=Environmental and Energy Study Institute |date=9 June 2022 |url=https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/fact-sheet-the-growth-in-greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-commercial-aviation |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{overton2022growth, author = {Overton, Jeff}, title = {{The Growth in Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Commercial Aviation}}, institution = {Environmental and Energy Study Institute}, year = {2022}, month = jun, url = {https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/fact-sheet-the-growth-in-greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-commercial-aviation}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }