The Montreal Protocol and Its Implications for Climate Change

The Montreal Protocol successfully phased out the production of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), but failed to address the global warming potential of existing ODS banks and the rapid growth of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) substitutes. ODS banks, if not controlled, risk releasing significant greenhouse gases, while HFC emissions are projected to increase substantially by 2050, particularly in developing countries. The document examines policy options such as the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009, producer responsibility programs in other developed nations, and proposals to expand the Montreal Protocol's mandate to include HFCs.

• The Montreal Protocol has been highly successful in phasing out ODS production, with stratospheric ozone expected to return to pre-1980 levels during the second half of the 21st century.
• Existing ODS banks pose a significant climate risk because the Montreal Protocol did not incentivize their controlled destruction; preventing these emissions over the next 20 years could reduce the total warming impact of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by 3 to 4 percent.
• HFCs, used as substitutes for ODSs, have high global warming potential (GWP) and are increasing rapidly in atmospheric prevalence. Under a business-as-usual scenario, HFC emissions could account for 9 to 19 percent of projected global CO2-equivalent emissions by 2050.
• HFC emissions from developing countries are projected to overtake those from developed countries by 2020 and exceed them by 800 percent by 2050.
• The United States has an estimated 1.5 GtCO2-eq of ODS volume readily accessible in equipment as of 2005, but lacks recovery standards for domestic appliances and reporting requirements for commercial refrigerant recovery operators.
• The American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (H.R. 2454) proposes economic incentives for CFC destruction via offset credits and a separate cap-and-trade program for HFCs to phase down consumption to 15 percent of the baseline by 2032.

APA

Environmental and Energy Study Institute (2009). The Montreal Protocol and Its Implications for Climate Change. https://www.eesi.org/files/100609_montreal_brief.pdf

Chicago

Environmental and Energy Study Institute. The Montreal Protocol and Its Implications for Climate Change. 2009. https://www.eesi.org/files/100609_montreal_brief.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Environmental and Energy Study Institute |title=The Montreal Protocol and Its Implications for Climate Change |date=October 2009 |url=https://www.eesi.org/files/100609_montreal_brief.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{environmentalandenergystudyinstitute2009montreal, author = {{Environmental and Energy Study Institute}}, title = {{The Montreal Protocol and Its Implications for Climate Change}}, institution = {Environmental and Energy Study Institute}, year = {2009}, month = oct, url = {https://www.eesi.org/files/100609_montreal_brief.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }