Environmental Migrants: Considerations for the U.S. Government

This briefing by the Environmental and Energy Study Institute argues that the United States must proactively plan for climate-induced migration to avoid regional instability and humanitarian crises. It highlights the lack of legal protections for environmental migrants and the specific risks of agricultural decline in Mexico and Central and South America, while noting the potential strain on U.S. military resources tasked with humanitarian aid.

• Climate change is expected to displace tens of millions of people globally, driven by direct factors like rising sea levels and higher temperatures, or indirect factors such as economic disruptions and conflict over scarce resources. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) categorizes these movements into three types: those induced by sudden disasters, those caused by gradual degradation, and those seeking to avoid future threats.
• Environmental migrants currently lack formal classification as refugees, which denies them legal protections under the United Nations' 1951 Refugee Convention. This includes the loss of rights to freedom of movement and non-refoulement (protection from forced return), as well as reduced access to aid. Unlike previous crises, these migrants may have no home to return to, necessitating permanent resettlement.
• The United States faces significant strategic and logistical risks from climate migration, including the potential for state and regional instability. The document cites Syria as an example, where drought led 1.5 million people to migrate to cities, contributing to the civil war. Consequently, the U.S. military—specifically the Navy and Marine Corps—will likely face increased demand and budget strain to deliver humanitarian aid, having already delivered over $1 billion in aid between 2006 and 2010.
• Migration from Central and South America to the United States is projected to increase significantly due to climate-driven agricultural declines. Specifically, it is estimated that by 2080, up to 6.7 million people could be driven out of Mexico, with many expected to migrate to the U.S. due to existing close ties and a lack of other options.

APA

Stanish, J. (2017). Environmental Migrants: Considerations for the U.S. Government. Environmental and Energy Study Institute. https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/issue-brief-environmental-migrants-considerations-for-the-u.s.-government

Chicago

Stanish, James. Environmental Migrants: Considerations for the U.S. Government. Environmental and Energy Study Institute, 2017. https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/issue-brief-environmental-migrants-considerations-for-the-u.s.-government.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Stanish |first1=James |title=Environmental Migrants: Considerations for the U.S. Government |publisher=Environmental and Energy Study Institute |date=19 October 2017 |url=https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/issue-brief-environmental-migrants-considerations-for-the-u.s.-government |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stanish2017environmental, author = {Stanish, James}, title = {{Environmental Migrants: Considerations for the U.S. Government}}, institution = {Environmental and Energy Study Institute}, year = {2017}, month = oct, url = {https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/issue-brief-environmental-migrants-considerations-for-the-u.s.-government}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }