The Next Great Idea in Arms Control: An End to Nuclear Sea-Launched Cruise Missiles

The Council on Strategic Risks recommends that the United States end its pursuit of nuclear-armed submarine-launched cruise missiles (SLCM-N) to mitigate the risk of nuclear war. The document argues that SLCM-N are destabilizing because they are virtually indistinguishable from conventional cruise missiles, which could lead to catastrophic miscalculations during a crisis. It suggests a phased approach: first, a unilateral U.S. decision to forgo the weapons, followed by a political commitment from the permanent members of the UN Security Council (P-5) to cap and eliminate them. The brief notes that such an agreement is feasible because few nuclear states possess them—Russia is the only state with a confirmed stockpile—and the U.S. has successfully eliminated them in the past. The authors propose a verification regime involving data exchanges, portal monitors, and random inspections to ensure compliance.

• Nuclear-armed submarine-launched cruise missiles (SLCM-N) create significant instability because they are nearly impossible to distinguish from conventional cruise missiles during flight, which could trigger a "use them or lose them" nuclear retaliation if a state mistakenly assumes an incoming attack is nuclear.
• The potential for lower nuclear yields associated with SLCM-N may paradoxically increase the likelihood of their use, potentially escalating a conflict into all-out nuclear war.
• A global ban on SLCM-N is considered feasible because very few nuclear-armed states possess them; Russia is currently the only nation with a confirmed stockpile, while China and France do not possess them in their nuclear arsenals.
• The United States has a precedent for eliminating these weapons, having withdrawn Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles (TLAM-N) from submarines under the Presidential Nuclear Initiatives (PNIs) and formally dismantling them by 2011.
• Despite the risks, the U.S. Department of Defense announced in the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review that it would pursue a new SLCM-N, with design work potentially starting in 2022 to achieve parity with Russia.
• The proposed path to elimination involves a unilateral U.S. halt, followed by a political commitment from the P-5 nations to cap and forgo SLCM-N, potentially announced at the August 2021 Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty Review Conference.
• A feasible verification regime for an SLCM-N ban would include data exchanges, perimeter portal monitors to track missiles, a special verification facility, random sampling of missiles, and limited challenge inspections.

APA

Owens, J., Parthemore, C., & Weber, A. (2021). The Next Great Idea in Arms Control: An End to Nuclear Sea-Launched Cruise Missiles. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/The-Next-Great-Idea-in-Nuclear-Arms-Control_An-End-to-Nuclear-Sea-Launched-Cruise-Missiles_BRIEFER-19_2021_05_19-1.pdf

Chicago

Owens, Jasmine, Christine Parthemore, and Andy Weber. The Next Great Idea in Arms Control: An End to Nuclear Sea-Launched Cruise Missiles. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2021. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/The-Next-Great-Idea-in-Nuclear-Arms-Control_An-End-to-Nuclear-Sea-Launched-Cruise-Missiles_BRIEFER-19_2021_05_19-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Owens |first1=Jasmine |last2=Parthemore |first2=Christine |last3=Weber |first3=Andy |title=The Next Great Idea in Arms Control: An End to Nuclear Sea-Launched Cruise Missiles |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=19 May 2021 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/The-Next-Great-Idea-in-Nuclear-Arms-Control_An-End-to-Nuclear-Sea-Launched-Cruise-Missiles_BRIEFER-19_2021_05_19-1.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{owens2021next, author = {Owens, Jasmine and Parthemore, Christine and Weber, Andy}, title = {{The Next Great Idea in Arms Control: An End to Nuclear Sea-Launched Cruise Missiles}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2021}, month = may, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/The-Next-Great-Idea-in-Nuclear-Arms-Control_An-End-to-Nuclear-Sea-Launched-Cruise-Missiles_BRIEFER-19_2021_05_19-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }