Improving Nuclear Strategic Stability Through a Responsibility-Based Approach

The briefing argues that the world is entering a period of high risk due to the collapse of formal arms control agreements between the US and Russia, the emergence of new nuclear powers, and the introduction of destabilizing technologies. To counter this, the author proposes the adoption of 'Nuclear Strategic Stability' (NSS) as a primary metric, where the risk of nuclear conflict is kept as low as achievable. The author outlines a '10-point Code of Responsible Nuclear Armed States' based on six elements: restraint, relevance, reassurance, readiness, reciprocity, and reduction. Furthermore, the document suggests a three-gateway (T1, T2, T3) schematic pathway to disarmament, emphasizing that the removal of tactical weapons and the establishment of conventional arms control are prerequisites for the final elimination of nuclear arsenals under the NPT framework.

• The global security environment is characterized by three interlocking challenges: the risk of nuclear escalation from conventional conflict or miscalculation fueled by AI and machine learning; a new arms race in 'less-than-strategic' and hypersonic systems; and the erosion of trust following the collapse of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty.
• The author proposes a specific metric called Nuclear Strategic Stability (NSS), defined as a state where the risk of any conflict being initiated or escalated to the nuclear level is as low as achievable, allowing the world to absorb crises without crossing the nuclear threshold.
• To improve NSS, the document postulates a 10-point Code of Responsible Nuclear Armed States organized around six pillars: Restraint (rhetoric and communication), Relevance (nuclear weapons only as strategic deterrents), Reassurance (political control and negative security assurances), Readiness (lowest possible readiness levels), Reciprocity (mutual posture adjustments and protecting C3 systems), and Reduction (pathways to simplify arsenals).
• The proposed pathway to disarmament consists of three gateways: T1 involves controlling and eliminating weapons most susceptible to nuclear warfighting; T2 requires the decommissioning of all remaining tactical and 'delegated in conflict' weapons; and T3 is the point where the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) becomes relevant.
• The author argues that for nuclear-armed states to agree to final decommissioning, new formal conventional arms control agreements are necessary to ensure their security is not diminished, reflecting the second clause of NPT Article VI regarding general and complete disarmament.

APA

Gower, J. (2019). Improving Nuclear Strategic Stability Through a Responsibility-Based Approach. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Improving-Nuclear-Strategic-Stability-Through-a-Responsibility-Based-Approach_Briefer-1_2019_10_22.pdf

Chicago

Gower, John. Improving Nuclear Strategic Stability Through a Responsibility-Based Approach. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2019. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Improving-Nuclear-Strategic-Stability-Through-a-Responsibility-Based-Approach_Briefer-1_2019_10_22.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Gower |first1=John |title=Improving Nuclear Strategic Stability Through a Responsibility-Based Approach |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=22 October 2019 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Improving-Nuclear-Strategic-Stability-Through-a-Responsibility-Based-Approach_Briefer-1_2019_10_22.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{gower2019improving, author = {Gower, John}, title = {{Improving Nuclear Strategic Stability Through a Responsibility-Based Approach}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2019}, month = oct, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Improving-Nuclear-Strategic-Stability-Through-a-Responsibility-Based-Approach_Briefer-1_2019_10_22.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }