Climate, Ecological Security and the Ukraine Crisis: Four Issues to Consider

The document examines how the Ukraine crisis intersects with climate security, emphasizing the need to accelerate the clean energy transition to neutralize Russia's fossil fuel leverage. It details the ecological degradation in Ukraine, including risks to nuclear sites and ecosystems, and warns of global food insecurity due to disruptions in wheat, maize, and sunflower oil exports. Finally, it assesses Russia's own vulnerabilities to permafrost melt and Arctic ice loss, noting that the conflict hinders necessary international climate cooperation.

• Russia's use of fossil fuels as a geopolitical weapon underscores the security necessity of accelerating the global clean energy transition. In 2021, Russian natural gas accounted for approximately 45% of EU gas imports and nearly 40% of its total gas consumption.
• The transition to renewable energy is complicated by the need for critical minerals, where both Russia and Ukraine are key suppliers. Russia produces copper, nickel, and platinum, while Ukraine provides gallium and germanium for solar panels and possesses untapped lithium reserves for electric vehicle batteries.
• The conflict has caused severe ecological damage in Ukraine, including radiation spikes at the closed Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant due to heavy machinery disturbing contaminated soil and the seizure of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe's largest active nuclear facility.
• Global food security is threatened because Russia and Ukraine together provide one-third of global wheat exports, one-fifth of maize exports, and 80% of sunflower oil production. This disruption particularly impacts low and middle-income countries in Africa and the Middle East, such as Egypt and Lebanon.
• Russia faces significant internal climate security risks, with temperatures rising 2.5 times faster than the global average. Permafrost melt threatens 85% of large settlements on permafrost worldwide, which are located in Russian territory, with foundation support decreasing by 10% to 40% relative to the 1960s.
• Russia's climate performance is ranked as "very low" according to the 2022 Climate Change Performance Index. Despite acknowledging risks in its 2021 National Security Strategy, Russia views environmental protection as a tool for foreign actors to exert political and economic pressure.

APA

Sikorsky, E., Barron, E., & Hugh, B. (2022). Climate, Ecological Security and the Ukraine Crisis: Four Issues to Consider. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Climate-Ecological-Security-and-the-Ukraine-Crisis_Four-Issues-to-Consider_BRIEFER-31_2022_11_3.pdf

Chicago

Sikorsky, Erin, Elsa Barron, and Brigitte Hugh. Climate, Ecological Security and the Ukraine Crisis: Four Issues to Consider. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2022. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Climate-Ecological-Security-and-the-Ukraine-Crisis_Four-Issues-to-Consider_BRIEFER-31_2022_11_3.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Sikorsky |first1=Erin |last2=Barron |first2=Elsa |last3=Hugh |first3=Brigitte |title=Climate, Ecological Security and the Ukraine Crisis: Four Issues to Consider |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=12 March 2022 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Climate-Ecological-Security-and-the-Ukraine-Crisis_Four-Issues-to-Consider_BRIEFER-31_2022_11_3.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{sikorsky2022climate, author = {Sikorsky, Erin and Barron, Elsa and Hugh, Brigitte}, title = {{Climate, Ecological Security and the Ukraine Crisis: Four Issues to Consider}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2022}, month = mar, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Climate-Ecological-Security-and-the-Ukraine-Crisis_Four-Issues-to-Consider_BRIEFER-31_2022_11_3.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }