Climate Change in the U.S. National Security Strategy: History and Recommendations

The document traces the evolution of climate change within U.S. National Security Strategies from 1991 to 2017, noting a shift from viewing it as a distant foreign threat to an urgent domestic and global security risk. It argues that while the Department of Defense has led in addressing these risks, congressional funding for military installation resilience remains insufficient. The authors recommend that the next NSS expand its scope beyond the energy sector to include 'ecological security'—addressing biodiversity loss and ocean health—and incorporate non-linear planetary thresholds and sophisticated environmental monitoring to better forecast systemic risks.

• The perception of climate change in U.S. National Security Strategies evolved from a distant threat in the early 1990s to a recognized domestic security threat by 2000, and eventually to an urgent threat requiring adaptation by 2015.
• The Biden administration has taken unprecedented steps to integrate climate risk into national security through Executive Orders and the directive for the first National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) focused on climate change.
• Despite bipartisan agreement on climate risks and the Department of Defense's leadership in addressing them, Congress has repeatedly limited climate and energy activities and left military installation resilience programs drastically underfunded.
• The authors argue that future National Security Strategies must move beyond the energy sector to address all greenhouse gas sources and sinks, including buildings, transportation, industry, and agriculture.
• The paper recommends transitioning from a narrow 'climate security' framework to 'ecological security,' which incorporates the security threats posed by declining biodiversity and ocean health.
• The U.S. should prioritize environmental monitoring and the forecasting of non-linear planetary thresholds, as crossing these thresholds could lead to catastrophic disruptions to global security and sea levels higher than any time since the last ice age.

APA

Kaufman, H., & Goodman, S. (2021). Climate Change in the U.S. National Security Strategy: History and Recommendations. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Climate-Change-in-the-U.S.-National-Security-Strategy_BRIEFER-21_2021_6_29.pdf

Chicago

Kaufman, Holly, and Sherri Goodman. Climate Change in the U.S. National Security Strategy: History and Recommendations. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2021. https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Climate-Change-in-the-U.S.-National-Security-Strategy_BRIEFER-21_2021_6_29.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Kaufman |first1=Holly |last2=Goodman |first2=Sherri |title=Climate Change in the U.S. National Security Strategy: History and Recommendations |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=29 June 2021 |url=https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Climate-Change-in-the-U.S.-National-Security-Strategy_BRIEFER-21_2021_6_29.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{kaufman2021climate, author = {Kaufman, Holly and Goodman, Sherri}, title = {{Climate Change in the U.S. National Security Strategy: History and Recommendations}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2021}, month = jun, url = {https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Climate-Change-in-the-U.S.-National-Security-Strategy_BRIEFER-21_2021_6_29.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }