Climate Adaptation in High-Security Risk Countries

The report examines climate adaptation in Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Haiti, the Horn of Africa, Mexico, Myanmar, and Papua New Guinea. It finds that while instability often leads to risk-averse site selection and implementation delays, projects that integrate conflict-sensitivity and community-led approaches can mitigate these challenges and potentially contribute to peacebuilding. The analysis highlights the necessity of flexible implementation, the use of fragility assessments, and the importance of addressing root causes of vulnerability to avoid maladaptation and 'backdraft'—unforeseen negative spillover effects.

• Climate adaptation projects in high-security risk areas often exhibit 'risk aversion' during the planning phase, where site selection is biased toward stable areas to ensure personnel safety, potentially bypassing the most vulnerable conflict-prone sites.
• Security dynamics frequently cause implementation delays and force the use of third-party contractors or security escorts, which can impact the consistency of reporting and the ability to conduct thorough monitoring and evaluation.
• Bottom-up, community-led approaches are more sustainable in fragile states because they maintain functionality even when national government institutions lose legitimacy or become inaccessible, as seen following the 2021 coup in Myanmar.
• Integrating conflict mitigation directly into project objectives can break the cycle of climate-conflict-vulnerability, whereas projects that do not explicitly include peacebuilding goals may only inadvertently contribute to it.
• Maladaptation and 'backdraft'—negative spillover effects—occur when projects fail to account for local social dynamics, such as when sustainable fishing restrictions in Myanmar increased food insecurity or gender empowerment in Papua New Guinea challenged patriarchal norms.
• Phased implementation and the use of fragility assessments are identified as best practices for managing the evolving security risks in conflict-affected regions, allowing for technical groundwork to be laid before full investment.

APA

Greenbaum, E., Dabek, J., Nye, E., & Pineda-Gonzalez, M. (2025). Climate Adaptation in High-Security Risk Countries. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Climate-Adaptation-final.pdf

Chicago

Greenbaum, Eleanor, Joshua Dabek, Evan Nye, and Miriam Pineda-Gonzalez. Climate Adaptation in High-Security Risk Countries. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2025. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Climate-Adaptation-final.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Greenbaum |first1=Eleanor |last2=Dabek |first2=Joshua |last3=Nye |first3=Evan |last4=Pineda-Gonzalez |first4=Miriam |title=Climate Adaptation in High-Security Risk Countries |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=November 2025 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Climate-Adaptation-final.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{greenbaum2025climate, author = {Greenbaum, Eleanor and Dabek, Joshua and Nye, Evan and Pineda-Gonzalez, Miriam}, title = {{Climate Adaptation in High-Security Risk Countries}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2025}, month = nov, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Climate-Adaptation-final.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }