Climate Intervention at High Latitudes: A Security Simulation Background

The document outlines a fictional 2030 scenario where a public-private consortium led by Canada and the United Kingdom proposes deploying stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) over the Arctic to preserve sea ice and slow the Greenland ice sheet melt. The simulation tasks participants representing various nations and blocs—including Russia, China, Norway, the EU, Mexico, and the African Union—with deciding whether to join, oppose, or remain neutral toward the consortium, and determining their preferred SAI deployment levels based on security, economic, and geopolitical interests.

• The fictional scenario is set in 2030, with projections that the Arctic Ocean will be seasonally ice-free within five years and concerns regarding permafrost thaw, the Greenland ice sheet, and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).
• A Canada-UK led public-private consortium proposes an SAI deployment starting with 3Tg of sulfur dioxide (SO2) annually over the Arctic at 60°N between 2035-2040, scaling up to a global peak of 14Tg by 2100 to stabilize temperatures at 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels under an SSP2-4.5 scenario.
• The proposal faces opposition from low-latitude countries concerned about disruptions to the hydrological cycle and precipitation, as well as from other Arctic nations concerned about geopolitical implications.

APA

The Council on Strategic Risks (n.d.). Climate Intervention at High Latitudes: A Security Simulation Background. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/CCS-Climate-Intervention-Scenario-Scenesetter.docx.pdf

Chicago

The Council on Strategic Risks. Climate Intervention at High Latitudes: A Security Simulation Background. n.d. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/CCS-Climate-Intervention-Scenario-Scenesetter.docx.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=The Council on Strategic Risks |title=Climate Intervention at High Latitudes: A Security Simulation Background |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/CCS-Climate-Intervention-Scenario-Scenesetter.docx.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{thecouncilonstrategicrisksndclimate, author = {{The Council on Strategic Risks}}, title = {{Climate Intervention at High Latitudes: A Security Simulation Background}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/CCS-Climate-Intervention-Scenario-Scenesetter.docx.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }