Brazil: A Climate, Nuclear, and Security Hotspot

Brazil is characterized as a global leader in renewable energy and a sophisticated nuclear actor, yet it faces severe systemic risks. The country is pursuing a nuclear-powered submarine program while managing rising deforestation in the Amazon and significant climate threats, including projected temperature increases of 1°C to 2.2°C by 2060. These environmental stressors intersect with deep socioeconomic inequality, a fragile healthcare system strained by COVID-19, and political instability marked by a shift toward authoritarianism and widespread corruption. The document argues that the intersection of these climate, health, and political crises could undermine Brazil's stability and its role in the international order.

• Brazil is developing a nuclear-propelled submarine, the Álvaro Alberto, slated for commissioning in 2029. This makes Brazil the first non-nuclear weapon state to embark on such a project, utilizing a "loophole" in the Quadripartite safeguards agreement that allows material to be withdrawn for non-explosive military uses.
• Brazil's nuclear energy infrastructure is focused on technical sovereignty, with the goal of achieving self-sufficiency in nuclear fuel production by 2022 through the Resende facilities. The country operates two reactors and is pursuing the construction of Angra 3, though the pandemic may delay its operational date to 2027.
• Climate change is projected to cause temperatures in Brazil to rise by 1°C to 2.2°C by 2060, with the Amazon potentially warming by 2°C to 3°C a decade earlier. This could reach a tipping point where the rainforest transforms into savannah, disrupting the local freshwater system and impacting urban areas like São Paulo.
• Agricultural productivity is highly vulnerable to climate shifts; a 1°C increase in the state of Mato Grosso could lead to at least a 9% decline in national soybean and maize production. Additionally, sea level rise of 0.2 to 2 meters by the end of the century may affect over 600,000 Brazilians in the Amazon river delta between 2070 and 2100.
• Deforestation in the Amazon has risen since 2012, reaching its highest level in over a decade in 2019. This trend is driven by mining, illegal logging, and land grabs, and is exacerbated by a government stance that promotes the exploitation of forest resources.
• Brazil faces severe socioeconomic instability characterized by systemic inequality, where approximately one-third of the population is food insecure. Political stability has been eroded by the Operation Carwash corruption scandal and a presidential shift toward authoritarianism and hyper-nationalism.
• The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated existing vulnerabilities, including a fragile healthcare system and a large informal economy (which employed around 40% of the workforce in late 2019). There is a risk that non-state groups in favelas may fill governance voids left by the central government.

APA

Rezzonico, A., & Petersen, M. W. (2020). Brazil: A Climate, Nuclear, and Security Hotspot. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Brazil-A-Climate-Nuclear-and-Security-Hotspot_BRIEFER-11_2020_10_26.pdf

Chicago

Rezzonico, Andrea, and Meggen Watt Petersen. Brazil: A Climate, Nuclear, and Security Hotspot. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2020. https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Brazil-A-Climate-Nuclear-and-Security-Hotspot_BRIEFER-11_2020_10_26.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Rezzonico |first1=Andrea |last2=Petersen |first2=Meggen Watt |title=Brazil: A Climate, Nuclear, and Security Hotspot |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=9 October 2020 |url=https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Brazil-A-Climate-Nuclear-and-Security-Hotspot_BRIEFER-11_2020_10_26.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rezzonico2020brazil, author = {Rezzonico, Andrea and Petersen, Meggen Watt}, title = {{Brazil: A Climate, Nuclear, and Security Hotspot}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2020}, month = oct, url = {https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Brazil-A-Climate-Nuclear-and-Security-Hotspot_BRIEFER-11_2020_10_26.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }