Battling Catastrophic Biological Threats

The report assesses the escalating risk of catastrophic biological threats driven by the democratization of biotechnology and climate change. It highlights that future pandemics could be orders of magnitude more lethal than COVID-19, whether through natural emergence, laboratory accidents, or deliberate use. The authors argue that current U.S. biodefense spending is insufficient, representing less than 1% of the defense budget. They propose a "10+10 over 10" investment plan—$20 billion annually for ten years—focusing on pathogen-agnostic defensive tools, strengthened international norms, and improved deterrence through preparedness. The report concludes that such investments are highly cost-effective compared to the trillions of dollars in potential economic losses and millions of lives at risk.

• Biological threats are increasing due to the rapid democratization of biotechnology, characterized by exponentially decreasing costs for DNA synthesis and sequencing and the proliferation of open-source software.
• Future pandemics could be significantly more lethal than COVID-19; for example, a hypothetical airborne H5N1 variant with a 50% fatality rate could cause tens of millions of deaths in the U.S. within months.
• The risk of accidental release from laboratories is significant, evidenced by historical incidents such as the 1971 smallpox outbreak in Aralsk, Kazakhstan, and the 1979 anthrax leak in Sverdlovsk.
• U.S. federal biodefense spending is considered under-invested, averaging $11.8 billion per year from 2019 to 2023 and amounting to less than 1% of the annual U.S. defense budget.
• The report recommends a "10+10 over 10" investment plan: $10 billion annually for ten years for biological weapons threats and $10 billion annually for ten years for global health security and pandemic prevention.
• Effective risk reduction strategies include deploying pathogen-agnostic tools such as far-UVC light for virus inactivation, improved air filtration, and large-scale DNA synthesis screening.
• The economic cost of an average pandemic is estimated at $7.5 trillion in total expected losses for the U.S., including the value of lives lost and GDP impact.
• Certain nations are identified as continuing to maintain offensive biological weapons programs in violation of the Biological Weapons Convention, specifically Russia and North Korea.

APA

Justen, N., Calvin, N., & Weber, A. (2023). Battling Catastrophic Biological Threats. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/BattlingCatastrophicBioThreats.pdf

Chicago

Justen, Nils, Nathan Calvin, and Andrew Weber. Battling Catastrophic Biological Threats. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2023. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/BattlingCatastrophicBioThreats.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Justen |first1=Nils |last2=Calvin |first2=Nathan |last3=Weber |first3=Andrew |title=Battling Catastrophic Biological Threats |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=May 2023 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/BattlingCatastrophicBioThreats.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{justen2023battling, author = {Justen, Nils and Calvin, Nathan and Weber, Andrew}, title = {{Battling Catastrophic Biological Threats}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2023}, month = may, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/BattlingCatastrophicBioThreats.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }