One Year Later: Unraveling Climate and Ecological Security in Ukraine

The document analyzes how the conflict in Ukraine has accelerated Europe's shift toward renewable energy while simultaneously causing severe ecological damage within Ukraine and destabilizing global food security. It highlights the systemic interplay between war, climate change, and environmental degradation, noting that the resulting ecological losses and food system disruptions may have long-term, irreversible effects.

• The conflict accelerated Europe's clean energy transition to reduce dependence on Russian fossil fuels. The REPowerEU plan, introduced in May 2022, targets a 30 percent reduction in gas consumption and 69 percent renewable electricity generation by 2030.
• While the energy crisis reinvigorated interest in nuclear energy in Europe, the industry remains partially dependent on Russia; for example, Rosatom provided 20 percent of Europe's uranium supply in 2021, and France imports 15 percent of its uranium from Russia.
• The International Energy Agency (IEA) found that if all natural gas exporters to the EU eliminated non-emergency flaring and reduced methane emissions, these actions could replace one-third of the natural gas Russia supplied in 2021.
• Ukraine's environment ministry estimated approximately $19 billion in damages directly attributed to Russian operations as of January 2023, excluding air pollution costs. The war has impacted roughly 3 million hectares of forest, and another 2.9 million hectares of protected areas are at risk of destruction.
• The conflict has caused severe ecological damage, including the accidental killing of thousands of dolphins in the Black Sea and the draining of the Kakhovka reservoir, which may release contaminated sediments and destroy aquatic ecosystems.
• The war has contributed to global climate risks through significant greenhouse gas emissions. Ukraine's environment minister reported 33 million tons of greenhouse gases directly linked to the war, comparable to the annual emissions of New Zealand.
• Global food security has been imperiled by the disruption of Ukrainian grain production and exports. In 2022, 1.3 billion people went hungry globally, an increase of 118.7 million from 2021. High fertilizer prices, driven by the conflict, led to a 37-38% decline in maize production in Kenya.

APA

Barron, E., Hugh, B., & Zarfos, M. R. (2023). One Year Later: Unraveling Climate and Ecological Security in Ukraine. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/46-UkraineClimatEcoSec.pdf

Chicago

Barron, Elsa, Brigitte Hugh, and Michael R. Zarfos. One Year Later: Unraveling Climate and Ecological Security in Ukraine. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2023. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/46-UkraineClimatEcoSec.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Barron |first1=Elsa |last2=Hugh |first2=Brigitte |last3=Zarfos |first3=Michael R. |title=One Year Later: Unraveling Climate and Ecological Security in Ukraine |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=22 March 2023 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/46-UkraineClimatEcoSec.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{barron2023one, author = {Barron, Elsa and Hugh, Brigitte and Zarfos, Michael R.}, title = {{One Year Later: Unraveling Climate and Ecological Security in Ukraine}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2023}, month = mar, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/46-UkraineClimatEcoSec.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }