Deepening U.S. Climate Security Ambition: A Road Map for 2023

The briefing assesses the intersection of climate change and U.S. national security, noting progress in regional strategies and whole-of-government planning while highlighting critical gaps in climate finance and implementation. It recommends that the U.S. institutionalize climate security through expanded personnel training, the development of a National Adaptation Plan, and the use of strategic foresight tools like wargaming to prepare for worst-case climate scenarios.

• The U.S. government integrated climate concerns into several regional strategies in 2022, including the Pacific Partnership Strategy, the U.S. Strategy Toward Sub-Saharan Africa, the National Strategy for the Arctic Region, and the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy. However, a Department of Defense (DoD) Inspector General report found that a significant gap remains between these written strategies and their actual implementation in the Arctic.
• The U.S. failed to meet its international climate finance pledges in 2022. Direct climate finance increased by only $900,000, which is far below the target of $11.4 billion annually by 2024; specifically, no funds were appropriated for the Green Climate Fund, and bilateral programs were underfunded by at least $1.5 billion.
• The Biden Administration has advanced a whole-of-government approach through the President’s Emergency Plan for Adaptation and Resilience (PREPARE) Action Plan, the National Security Strategy, and the National Defense Strategy. Additionally, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 is expected to lower U.S. carbon emissions by approximately 40 percent from 2005 levels.
• The U.S. is lagging behind allies and China in the development of a National Adaptation Plan, which is deemed necessary given that the U.S. experienced 18 separate disasters in 2022 with damages exceeding $1 billion each.
• The Department of Defense has increased its use of strategic foresight tools, including climate-focused Table Top Exercises (TTX) and wargaming, to assess mission readiness and warfighting capacity. Other agencies are using AI to detect rogue geoengineering and satellites like SWOT to understand global water resources.
• International allies have strengthened their own climate-defense frameworks: Japan released a Ministry of Defense Response Strategy on Climate Change, France created a Climate and Defence Strategy, and NATO established a Climate Change and Security Centre of Excellence in Montreal with a goal of net-zero emissions by 2050.

APA

Hugh, B., & Sikorsky, E. (2023). Deepening U.S. Climate Security Ambition: A Road Map for 2023. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/40-Road-Map-2023.pdf

Chicago

Hugh, Brigitte, and Erin Sikorsky. Deepening U.S. Climate Security Ambition: A Road Map for 2023. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2023. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/40-Road-Map-2023.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Hugh |first1=Brigitte |last2=Sikorsky |first2=Erin |title=Deepening U.S. Climate Security Ambition: A Road Map for 2023 |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=19 January 2023 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/40-Road-Map-2023.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{hugh2023deepening, author = {Hugh, Brigitte and Sikorsky, Erin}, title = {{Deepening U.S. Climate Security Ambition: A Road Map for 2023}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2023}, month = jan, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/40-Road-Map-2023.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }