Climate Adaptation in High-Security Risk Countries

The report analyzes climate adaptation projects in Afghanistan, the DRC, Haiti, the Horn of Africa, Mexico, Myanmar, and Papua New Guinea. It finds that while insecurity often leads to risk-averse site selection and implementation delays, projects that integrate conflict-climate nexus analysis and prioritize bottom-up, community-led approaches can mitigate conflict and foster peace. The authors recommend flexible implementation, holistic monitoring and evaluation, and the explicit inclusion of conflict mitigation in project objectives to avoid maladaptation and 'backdraft'.

• Security risks frequently lead to 'risk aversion' during the planning phase, where project sites are selected based on stability rather than need, potentially bypassing the most vulnerable conflict-prone areas.
• Insecure environments cause direct operational disruptions, including implementation delays, the need for security escorts, and the forced relocation of activities to avoid illicit groups like drug cartels.
• Bottom-up, community-led approaches are more sustainable in fragile states because they maintain project continuity even when national institutions lose legitimacy or become inaccessible, as seen following the 2021 coup in Myanmar.
• Integrating conflict mitigation and peacebuilding directly into project objectives can break the cycle of vulnerability, whereas projects that ignore these dynamics risk 'backdraft' or maladaptation.
• Maladaptation can occur when adaptation projects clash with local social norms or economic needs, such as fishing restrictions in Myanmar causing food insecurity or gender empowerment projects challenging patriarchal norms in Papua New Guinea.
• Phased implementation and the use of technical studies in high-risk areas can serve as a model for advancing adaptation by preparing for future investments once security improves.
• Capacity building in conflict management for project beneficiaries can create positive spillover effects, enabling communities to support each other during climate shocks without state intervention.
• There is a significant gap in practitioner reporting regarding the risks of maladaptation and backdraft, with few projects explicitly discussing these risks in evaluative or planning documents.

APA

Greenbaum, E., Dabek, J., Nye, E., & Pineda-Gonzalez, M. (2025). Climate Adaptation in High-Security Risk Countries. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2025/11/05/climate-adaptation-in-high-security-risk-countries/

Chicago

Greenbaum, Eleanor, Joshua Dabek, Evan Nye, and Miriam Pineda-Gonzalez. Climate Adaptation in High-Security Risk Countries. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2025. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2025/11/05/climate-adaptation-in-high-security-risk-countries/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Greenbaum |first1=Eleanor |last2=Dabek |first2=Joshua |last3=Nye |first3=Evan |last4=Pineda-Gonzalez |first4=Miriam |title=Climate Adaptation in High-Security Risk Countries |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=5 November 2025 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2025/11/05/climate-adaptation-in-high-security-risk-countries/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{greenbaum2025climate, author = {Greenbaum, Eleanor and Dabek, Joshua and Nye, Evan and Pineda-Gonzalez, Miriam}, title = {{Climate Adaptation in High-Security Risk Countries}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2025}, month = nov, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2025/11/05/climate-adaptation-in-high-security-risk-countries/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }