Risks of Response: Climate Security, Climate Policy, and Farmer Protests in Europe

The authors identify a category of 'risks of response' where climate policies trigger security dynamics, exemplified by widespread farmer protests across Europe. These protests, driven by grievances over fuel subsidies and environmental regulations, have escalated into violence and provided opportunities for far-right parties to foment instability. The text warns that this 'green backlash' could slow the transition and increase global security risks if not managed with better risk assessments and ameliorating measures.

• The authors define 'risks of response' as the security dynamics arising from how governments and societies react to climate change, noting that both emission-curbing policies and xenophobic responses to migration can cause instability.
• Agricultural protests across Europe are driven by opposition to EU and state 'greening' policies, including the EU's Green Deal, specifically regarding the removal of diesel and fuel subsidies, water conservation requirements, and changes to the Common Agricultural Policy's safety nets.
• Farmer protests have transitioned from peaceful demonstrations to security risks involving violence, such as threats to government ministers in the Netherlands in 2022, attempts to storm a ferry in Germany in January, and damage to French government buildings.
• Right-wing extremist and populist parties are exploiting farmer grievances to advance ideological agendas and destabilize governments, with the Farmers Defense Force in the Netherlands describing climate policies as a 'civil war' and the National Rally in France aligning with violent protests.
• The political backlash is already influencing policy, leading France to reverse its position on diesel subsidies and Germany to water down proposals to phase out tax breaks for farmers.

APA

Cicarelli, S., & Sikorsky, E. (2024). Risks of Response: Climate Security, Climate Policy, and Farmer Protests in Europe. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2024/02/01/risks-of-response-climate-security-climate-policy-farmer-protests-in-europe/

Chicago

Cicarelli, Siena, and Erin Sikorsky. Risks of Response: Climate Security, Climate Policy, and Farmer Protests in Europe. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2024. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2024/02/01/risks-of-response-climate-security-climate-policy-farmer-protests-in-europe/.

Wikipedia

{{cite press release |last1=Cicarelli |first1=Siena |last2=Sikorsky |first2=Erin |title=Risks of Response: Climate Security, Climate Policy, and Farmer Protests in Europe |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=1 February 2024 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2024/02/01/risks-of-response-climate-security-climate-policy-farmer-protests-in-europe/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@misc{cicarelli2024risks, author = {Cicarelli, Siena and Sikorsky, Erin}, title = {{Risks of Response: Climate Security, Climate Policy, and Farmer Protests in Europe}}, publisher = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2024}, month = feb, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2024/02/01/risks-of-response-climate-security-climate-policy-farmer-protests-in-europe/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }