Stability Multipliers: Food Security, Climate Change, and the Future of NATO Resilience

The report finds that while over 75% of NATO countries include climate change and nearly 70% include food security in their security strategies, these issues remain siloed. Most concrete actions focus on military emissions mitigation and direct adaptation rather than the indirect security implications of food and water insecurity. The author argues that climate-driven disasters create vulnerabilities that adversaries like Russia and China exploit through disinformation, weaponized migration, and food weaponization. The report recommends updating NATO's baseline resilience requirements and targeting investments toward "stability multipliers" that address the nexus of climate, food, and security both domestically and in the developing world.

• Climate change amplifies hybrid threats by exposing systemic vulnerabilities in NATO societies that adversaries exploit through disinformation, weaponized migration, and food weaponization.
• A majority of NATO member states acknowledge climate and food security in their strategic documents, but these topics are often treated in isolation from one another.
• Domestic food security is a priority for NATO, particularly for member states in the Nordics and eastern Europe responding to Russian threats, though it is rarely linked to global food insecurity or climate change.
• NATO's concrete climate security actions are narrow, focusing primarily on military emissions mitigation and direct adaptation rather than indirect risks like food and water insecurity.
• The report identifies specific examples of adversary exploitation of climate events, such as Russian and Belarusian disinformation following Storm Boris in 2024 and a Chinese influence operation after floods in Valencia, Spain.
• NATO's strategic focus on climate change has fluctuated based on member state politics, notably with the topic being removed from the 2025 NATO Summit due to a change in US policy.

APA

Sikorsky, E. (2026). Stability Multipliers: Food Security, Climate Change, and the Future of NATO Resilience. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2026/01/20/stability-multipliers-food-security-climate-change-and-the-future-of-nato-resilience/

Chicago

Sikorsky, Erin. Stability Multipliers: Food Security, Climate Change, and the Future of NATO Resilience. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2026. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2026/01/20/stability-multipliers-food-security-climate-change-and-the-future-of-nato-resilience/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Sikorsky |first1=Erin |title=Stability Multipliers: Food Security, Climate Change, and the Future of NATO Resilience |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=20 January 2026 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2026/01/20/stability-multipliers-food-security-climate-change-and-the-future-of-nato-resilience/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{sikorsky2026stability, author = {Sikorsky, Erin}, title = {{Stability Multipliers: Food Security, Climate Change, and the Future of NATO Resilience}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2026}, month = jan, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2026/01/20/stability-multipliers-food-security-climate-change-and-the-future-of-nato-resilience/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }