Leadership in the Polycrisis: How UK Defense Training Can Help Us Navigate a Future of Unprecedented Environmental Disruption

The document argues that the 'polycrisis'—a state of complex, compounding environmental risks—requires a new category of leadership capable of managing chaotic conditions. Based on research with approximately thirty senior UK defense personnel, the authors identify three core strengths of military leadership: baseline capabilities (physical/mental resilience, values-based leadership, and storytelling), constant rehearsal (simulations and wargaming), and the 'Mission Command' operational concept. The briefing suggests that civilian leaders can adopt these methods to close the 'imagination gap' and maintain agency during environmental destabilization, while also calling for the defense sector to better integrate sustainability into its own doctrine.

• The world has entered a 'polycrisis' era characterized by cascading and systemic risks where environmental shocks, such as biodiversity loss and soil degradation, interact with climate change to create a state of worsening crisis that can destabilize economic, social, and political systems.
• The 'polycrisis' creates a 'strategic risk' to the sustainability transition, as a more chaotic world may force societies to constantly manage symptoms of crises, thereby diverting essential resources and focus away from root causes like emissions reduction and nature regeneration.
• UK defense leadership provides a model for navigating chaos through baseline capabilities, including physical and mental resilience, values-based leadership to maintain purpose under pressure, and the use of storytelling ('spinning dits') to create a collective knowledge basis and prepare for critical action moments.
• Military rehearsal processes, including wargaming and computer simulations, allow personnel to exercise to the point of failure and close the 'imagination gap' between current realities and a chaotic future; the authors suggest these be embedded in civilian organizational learning.
• The 'Mission Command' concept, which combines centralized intent with decentralized execution, empowers personnel to exercise initiative and creativity in complex environments where rigid command-and-control structures fail.
• The authors identify four priority areas for development in both defense and civilian sectors: integrating sustainability into leadership doctrine, reducing the environmental impact of training via synthetic environments, incorporating systemic environmental risks into strategic security assessments, and linking foresight to leadership development.

APA

Laybourn, L., & Ince, M. (2023). Leadership in the Polycrisis: How UK Defense Training Can Help Us Navigate a Future of Unprecedented Environmental Disruption. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2023/06/28/leadership-in-the-polycrisis-how-uk-defense-training-can-help-us-navigate-a-future-of-unprecedented-environmental-disruption/

Chicago

Laybourn, Laurie, and Matt Ince. Leadership in the Polycrisis: How UK Defense Training Can Help Us Navigate a Future of Unprecedented Environmental Disruption. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2023. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2023/06/28/leadership-in-the-polycrisis-how-uk-defense-training-can-help-us-navigate-a-future-of-unprecedented-environmental-disruption/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Laybourn |first1=Laurie |last2=Ince |first2=Matt |title=Leadership in the Polycrisis: How UK Defense Training Can Help Us Navigate a Future of Unprecedented Environmental Disruption |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=28 June 2023 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2023/06/28/leadership-in-the-polycrisis-how-uk-defense-training-can-help-us-navigate-a-future-of-unprecedented-environmental-disruption/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{laybourn2023leadership, author = {Laybourn, Laurie and Ince, Matt}, title = {{Leadership in the Polycrisis: How UK Defense Training Can Help Us Navigate a Future of Unprecedented Environmental Disruption}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2023}, month = jun, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2023/06/28/leadership-in-the-polycrisis-how-uk-defense-training-can-help-us-navigate-a-future-of-unprecedented-environmental-disruption/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }