LOST AT SEA

The document analyzes the IMO's Net-Zero Framework (NZF), which was delayed by one year in October 2025 due to pressure from the US and oil-producing nations. A study by Cincera Consulting finds the NZF is inadequate, projecting emission reductions of only 8-10% by 2030, far below the 45% required by the Paris Agreement. The brief criticizes the NZF's hybrid approach—combining a GHG fuel standard with limited carbon pricing—noting that the effective carbon price of $14/tCO2eq is too low to drive a transition to green fuels. It recommends that the EU expand its Emissions Trading System (ETS) to cover 100% of emissions for voyages entering or leaving the European Economic Area and urges the IMO to adopt a universal levy to address absolute emissions.

• The IMO Net-Zero Framework (NZF) is projected to reduce shipping emissions by only 8-10% by 2030, which is significantly lower than the 20-30% target of the IMO Strategy and the 45% reduction required to align with the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal.
• The NZF's carbon pricing mechanism is considered weak, with an effective carbon price of approximately $14/tCO2eq, which is roughly six times lower than the EU ETS price as of August 2025 ($83) and far below the prices needed for green marine fuels like e-ammonia or e-methanol to be competitive.
• The NZF focuses on GHG intensity levels rather than absolute emissions, meaning total emissions could still rise if the growth of the shipping sector exceeds the efficiency gains from the framework's 'Z factors'.
• Annual revenue generated by the IMO NZF is projected at $15 billion, which is only about one-quarter of the $560 billion that would be generated by a high fixed levy of $150/tCO2eq.
• The adoption of the NZF was postponed by one year during an extraordinary session on 17 October 2025, following threats from the United States administration and pressure from oil-producing countries.

APA

Helle, J., Diab, K., & Sabio, N. R. (2025). LOST AT SEA. Carbon Market Watch. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Shipping-briefing-nov-2025-final.pdf

Chicago

Helle, Jenny, Khaled Diab, and Noemí Rodrigo Sabio. LOST AT SEA. Carbon Market Watch, 2025. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Shipping-briefing-nov-2025-final.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Helle |first1=Jenny |last2=Diab |first2=Khaled |last3=Sabio |first3=Noemí Rodrigo |title=LOST AT SEA |publisher=Carbon Market Watch |date=November 2025 |url=https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Shipping-briefing-nov-2025-final.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{helle2025lost, author = {Helle, Jenny and Diab, Khaled and Sabio, Noemí Rodrigo}, title = {{LOST AT SEA}}, institution = {Carbon Market Watch}, year = {2025}, month = nov, url = {https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Shipping-briefing-nov-2025-final.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }