Leaning on Uncertainty

The report finds that Italy's long-term climate strategy prioritises carbon removals and capture technologies over structural emission reductions, creating a risk of mitigation deterrence. While Italy aims for carbon neutrality by 2050, it lacks national legislation to enforce this goal and relies on EU-level targets. The study highlights significant transparency gaps, noting that industrial carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies like BECCS and DACCS are often conflated with carbon capture and storage (CCS). Furthermore, the report warns that planned increases in forest harvesting to 40-45% by 2030 could shrink or eliminate the land sink, despite government goals to restore it to a historic maximum of 45 Mt CO2eq by 2050.

• Italy's 2021 Long Term Strategy (LTS) establishes a hierarchy that prioritises carbon removals and capture technologies over deep structural changes in technology and consumption patterns.
• Italy lacks a dedicated national climate law and relies on EU legislation for its 2030 targets, including a 43.7% reduction in effort-sharing sectors and net removals of -35.8 Mt CO2eq in its land sink.
• Current emission-reduction policies are insufficient to meet the 2050 residual emissions goal of 65-85 Mt CO2eq; ISPRA's 'With Additional Measures' scenario projects 2050 gross emissions at 175.6 Mt.
• There is a significant lack of transparency regarding industrial CDR, with technologies such as BECCS and DACCS frequently conflated with CCS and CCU in official documents.
• Italy's land sink projections are volatile; while recent data suggests the 2030 LULUCF target will be exceeded with -42.8 Mt CO2eq, planned increases in forest harvesting to 40-45% could potentially eliminate the sink.
• Italy has identified a theoretical domestic CO2 storage capacity of 750 Mt, but transport and storage plans are only in early assessment stages.
• The deployment of Direct Air Capture (DAC) and BECCS is contingent on a radical transformation of the electricity system, yet the sources of additional renewable energy required are not specified.

APA

Orth, D. (2026). Leaning on Uncertainty. Carbon Market Watch. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Leaning-on-uncertainty-Italy.pdf

Chicago

Orth, Daniel. Leaning on Uncertainty. Carbon Market Watch, 2026. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Leaning-on-uncertainty-Italy.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Orth |first1=Daniel |title=Leaning on Uncertainty |publisher=Carbon Market Watch |date=April 2026 |url=https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Leaning-on-uncertainty-Italy.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{orth2026leaning, author = {Orth, Daniel}, title = {{Leaning on Uncertainty}}, institution = {Carbon Market Watch}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Leaning-on-uncertainty-Italy.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }