How to keep hot air out of the Paris Agreement: technical proposal

The briefing argues that allowing 'hot air' credits—surplus units from the Kyoto Protocol or inflated NDCs—threatens global climate targets. It proposes four 'damage control measures': prohibiting the use of Kyoto Protocol units (CERs, ERUs, AAUs) after 2020; limiting the transfer of units to 1% of 2010-2012 average annual emissions; prohibiting the carry-over of Article 6.2 ITMOs across NDC periods; and limiting the lifetime of Article 6.4 emission reductions to five years with restricted banking.

• The document identifies a significant volume of existing 'hot air' credits, including 14.1 billion AAUs from the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period and an estimated 18.7 to 28.3 GtCO2e of hot air within current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
• To prevent the use of old units, the author argues that the only sufficient option in the current Article 6.4 text is the provision stating that "Kyoto Protocol units may not be used by a Party towards its NDC", as other options remain silent on Assigned Amount Units (AAUs).
• The proposal suggests limiting the transfer of Article 6.2 units to a maximum of 1% of a country's average annual emissions from 2010-2012, multiplied by the years in its current NDC, which is estimated to block approximately 90% of existing hot air transfers.
• The document proposes strict time limits on credits to prevent long-term accumulation: Article 6.2 ITMOs should not be carried over across NDC periods, and Article 6.4 emission reductions (A6.4ERs) should have a maximum lifetime of 5 years.
• To prevent the indefinite build-up of surplus A6.4ERs, the proposal suggests limiting their carry-over to the subsequent NDC period to 1% of the Party's average annual emissions from 2010-2012 multiplied by the years of the current NDC.

APA

Carbon Market Watch (n.d.). How to keep hot air out of the Paris Agreement: technical proposal. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/How-to-keep-hot-air-out-of-the-Paris-Agreement-technical-proposal-1.pdf

Chicago

Carbon Market Watch. How to keep hot air out of the Paris Agreement: technical proposal. n.d. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/How-to-keep-hot-air-out-of-the-Paris-Agreement-technical-proposal-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Carbon Market Watch |title=How to keep hot air out of the Paris Agreement: technical proposal |url=https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/How-to-keep-hot-air-out-of-the-Paris-Agreement-technical-proposal-1.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{carbonmarketwatchndhow, author = {{Carbon Market Watch}}, title = {{How to keep hot air out of the Paris Agreement: technical proposal}}, institution = {Carbon Market Watch}, url = {https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/How-to-keep-hot-air-out-of-the-Paris-Agreement-technical-proposal-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }