Pagpondo sa pag-aalis ng coal

The report examines 'coal transition credits' as a financial tool for early coal plant closure in Southeast Asia. It finds significant expert skepticism, with only 2 out of 10 experts viewing them as effective. Major risks identified include carbon leakage, baseline inflation, and 'perverse incentives' that may reward polluters. The document concludes that CTCs are not a reliable exit strategy and emphasizes the need for systemic public policy and funding over market-based offsets.

• Expert confidence in coal transition credits as an effective mechanism for phasing out coal plants in Southeast Asia is very low, with only two out of ten surveyed experts believing they are effective.
• Carbon leakage is identified as the primary risk to environmental integrity, particularly in coal-dependent nations like Indonesia, where closing one plant may simply shift production to other coal or gas facilities.
• There is a significant risk of 'baseline inflation' and over-crediting due to the subjective nature of estimating avoided emissions and the failure to account for falling renewable energy costs and stricter climate policies.
• Current crediting methodologies, including Verra's VM0052, are criticized for not covering 'captive' coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) that supply specific industries like nickel, steel, or cement, potentially allowing new captive plants to be built while old ones are closed for credits.
• The report warns of 'perverse incentives' where the prospect of compensation via credits might encourage plant owners to delay closures or inflate baselines, effectively reversing the 'polluter pays' principle by rewarding polluters.
• Just transition safeguards for workers and communities are viewed as conditional and often superficial, with concerns that severance and retraining are treated as costs to be minimized rather than long-term security.
• Market demand for these credits is highly uncertain; seven out of ten experts are unsure if strong buyer demand will emerge, and there are fears that oversupply could destabilize the voluntary carbon market, similar to the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) experience.
• In Southeast Asia, the average age of coal plants is under 15 years, making early retirement financially difficult as recent investments have not yet been recovered, often leading to 'coal lock-in' through long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs).

APA

Wyburd, I., & Pavia, E. (2025). Pagpondo sa pag-aalis ng coal. Carbon Market Watch. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Filipino_Financing-the-coal-exit-Are-transition-credits-a-hype-or-an-effective-climate-tool-in-Southeast-Asia_final.pdf

Chicago

Wyburd, Inigo, and Edoardo Pavia. Pagpondo sa pag-aalis ng coal. Carbon Market Watch, 2025. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Filipino_Financing-the-coal-exit-Are-transition-credits-a-hype-or-an-effective-climate-tool-in-Southeast-Asia_final.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Wyburd |first1=Inigo |last2=Pavia |first2=Edoardo |title=Pagpondo sa pag-aalis ng coal |publisher=Carbon Market Watch |date=October 2025 |url=https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Filipino_Financing-the-coal-exit-Are-transition-credits-a-hype-or-an-effective-climate-tool-in-Southeast-Asia_final.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{wyburd2025pagpondo, author = {Wyburd, Inigo and Pavia, Edoardo}, title = {{Pagpondo sa pag-aalis ng coal}}, institution = {Carbon Market Watch}, year = {2025}, month = oct, url = {https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Filipino_Financing-the-coal-exit-Are-transition-credits-a-hype-or-an-effective-climate-tool-in-Southeast-Asia_final.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }