Zeroing in on net-zero

The report finds that EU member states are failing to responsibly govern negative emissions, often relying on vulnerable land-based sinks that are declining due to climate impacts. It highlights a systemic lack of separate, binding targets for permanent CDR and a failure to clearly define 'residual emissions' that CDR is intended to balance. While some countries like Sweden and Germany have initiated research or funding for bio-CCS, the report argues that most plans lack feasibility assessments and conflate permanent removals with fossil-fuel-related carbon capture and storage (CCS).

• EU member states generally lack a structured and equitable approach to carbon dioxide removals (CDR) and sequestration, with many relying on biomass and soil sinks that are declining or highly vulnerable.
• There is a widespread failure to define and quantify 'residual emissions'—those that cannot be abated—which prevents an accurate assessment of how much CDR capacity is actually needed.
• None of the five analyzed countries have fully established distinct, legally binding targets for permanent removals, often conflating them with temporary sequestration or general emission targets.
• In Germany, the LULUCF sector is currently a net emitter and is projected to fail both EU and federal 2030 targets, despite the country's reliance on these sinks for climate neutrality.
• The Netherlands relies on a CDR roadmap that estimates a demand of 10-40 Mt by 2050, but its primary financing tool (SDE++) conflates CDR with fossil-fuel-emitting CCS.
• Poland lacks a net-zero strategy and a mandatory Long-Term Strategy (LTS), relying heavily on vulnerable LULUCF sequestration and optimistic CCS projections.
• Spain's strategy for climate neutrality depends almost entirely on biomass and soil sequestration, despite projections that this capacity could drop by 38.4% by 2050 due to climate-induced aridity and fires.
• Sweden has invested significantly in bio-CCS through a SEK 36 billion state-aid scheme, but it lacks domestic geological storage and is entirely dependent on exporting captured carbon to Norway.
• Germany is implementing a 'blueprint of good practice' through research programs CDRterra and CDRmare to provide a feasibility basis for its forthcoming Long-term Negative emissions strategy (LNe).

APA

Orth, D., & Hirschberg, G. (n.d.). Zeroing in on net-zero. Carbon Market Watch. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/092026_Zeroing-in-on-net-zero.pdf

Chicago

Orth, Daniel, and Greta Hirschberg. Zeroing in on net-zero. Carbon Market Watch, n.d. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/092026_Zeroing-in-on-net-zero.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Orth |first1=Daniel |last2=Hirschberg |first2=Greta |title=Zeroing in on net-zero |publisher=Carbon Market Watch |url=https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/092026_Zeroing-in-on-net-zero.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{orthndzeroing, author = {Orth, Daniel and Hirschberg, Greta}, title = {{Zeroing in on net-zero}}, institution = {Carbon Market Watch}, url = {https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/092026_Zeroing-in-on-net-zero.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }