Manipulação de Estimativas de Fatores de Capacidade em contratos de energia eólica: evidências de um contrato com tarifa feed-in no Brasil

The analysis of Brazil's PROINFA program reveals that wind farm developers systematically manipulated capacity factor (FC) estimates to maximize tariffs and contracted energy volumes. This behavior led to a 14% shortfall in expected energy production and 12% overpayments in the first year of operation. The study suggests that a simple 1% interest penalty on excess payments would have eliminated the incentive for such manipulation.

• There were systematic discrepancies between estimated and actual capacity factors (FC) in wind farms, indicating that developers manipulated reports. The average estimated FC was 35%, while the actual average was 31%. This manipulation was driven by the PROINFA contract design and the high cost of monitoring wind data.
• The manipulation of capacity factors had two primary negative consequences: it reduced the total amount of renewable energy generated and increased the program's financial costs. Specifically, wind farms produced 14% less energy than predicted, and 12% of payments made during the first year of operation were overpayments for energy that was not generated.
• Simulations indicate that a small contractual change—specifically a 1% interest penalty on excess payments—would be sufficient to eliminate the incentives for manipulating reports, thereby improving the cost-effectiveness of the policy.
• The PROINFA program contributed significantly to the growth of installed wind capacity in Brazil, which increased from 29 MW in 2004 to 2,010 MW in 2012.

APA

Assunção, J., Chiavari, J., & Szerman, D. (2014). Manipulação de Estimativas de Fatores de Capacidade em contratos de energia eólica: evidências de um contrato com tarifa feed-in no Brasil. Climate Policy Initiative. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Manipulacao-de-Estimativas-de-Fatores-de-Capacidade-em-contratos-de-emergia-eolica-Sumario-Executivo.pdf

Chicago

Assunção, Juliano, Joana Chiavari, and Dimitri Szerman. Manipulação de Estimativas de Fatores de Capacidade em contratos de energia eólica: evidências de um contrato com tarifa feed-in no Brasil. Climate Policy Initiative, 2014. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Manipulacao-de-Estimativas-de-Fatores-de-Capacidade-em-contratos-de-emergia-eolica-Sumario-Executivo.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Assunção |first1=Juliano |last2=Chiavari |first2=Joana |last3=Szerman |first3=Dimitri |title=Manipulação de Estimativas de Fatores de Capacidade em contratos de energia eólica: evidências de um contrato com tarifa feed-in no Brasil |publisher=Climate Policy Initiative |date=April 2014 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Manipulacao-de-Estimativas-de-Fatores-de-Capacidade-em-contratos-de-emergia-eolica-Sumario-Executivo.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{assuno2014manipulao, author = {Assunção, Juliano and Chiavari, Joana and Szerman, Dimitri}, title = {{Manipulação de Estimativas de Fatores de Capacidade em contratos de energia eólica: evidências de um contrato com tarifa feed-in no Brasil}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2014}, month = apr, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Manipulacao-de-Estimativas-de-Fatores-de-Capacidade-em-contratos-de-emergia-eolica-Sumario-Executivo.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }