Manipulação de Estimativas de Fatores de Capacidade em contratos de energia eólica: evidências de um contrato com tarifa feed-in no Brasil

This executive summary analyzes the impact of capacity factor (FC) estimation manipulation within Brazil's Programa de Incentivo a Fontes Alternativas (PROINFA), a feed-in tariff (FiT) scheme. The authors find that project developers systematically inflated FC estimates to secure higher payments and larger contracted energy volumes, leading to financial overpayments and lower-than-planned energy generation. The report suggests that a simple 1% interest penalty on excess payments would have eliminated these incentives for manipulation.

• The PROINFA program successfully increased Brazil's installed wind capacity from 29 MW in 2004 to 2,010 MW by 2012, but flaws in contract design reduced the program's overall cost-effectiveness.
• There was systematic manipulation of capacity factor (FC) reports by project developers, evidenced by a gap between estimated and actual FCs. The average estimated FC was 35%, while the average realized FC was 31%. Estimates were disproportionately concentrated around the 32% and 42% thresholds that determined tariff levels.
• The manipulation of FC reports had two primary negative consequences: it caused a financial burden where 12% of first-year payments to wind farms were overpayments for energy not generated, and it resulted in a 14% shortfall in energy production compared to what was planned.
• Simulations indicate that a small contractual change—specifically a 1% interest penalty on excess payments—would have been sufficient to completely eliminate the incentives for report manipulation.

APA

Assunção, J., Chiavari, J., & Szerman, D. (2014). Manipulação de Estimativas de Fatores de Capacidade em contratos de energia eólica: evidências de um contrato com tarifa feed-in no Brasil. Climate Policy Initiative. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Manipulacao-de-Estimativas-de-Fatores-de-Capacidade-em-contratos-de-emergia-eolica-Sumario-Executivo.pdf

Chicago

Assunção, Juliano, Joana Chiavari, and Dimitri Szerman. Manipulação de Estimativas de Fatores de Capacidade em contratos de energia eólica: evidências de um contrato com tarifa feed-in no Brasil. Climate Policy Initiative, 2014. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Manipulacao-de-Estimativas-de-Fatores-de-Capacidade-em-contratos-de-emergia-eolica-Sumario-Executivo.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Assunção |first1=Juliano |last2=Chiavari |first2=Joana |last3=Szerman |first3=Dimitri |title=Manipulação de Estimativas de Fatores de Capacidade em contratos de energia eólica: evidências de um contrato com tarifa feed-in no Brasil |publisher=Climate Policy Initiative |date=April 2014 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Manipulacao-de-Estimativas-de-Fatores-de-Capacidade-em-contratos-de-emergia-eolica-Sumario-Executivo.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{assuno2014manipulao, author = {Assunção, Juliano and Chiavari, Joana and Szerman, Dimitri}, title = {{Manipulação de Estimativas de Fatores de Capacidade em contratos de energia eólica: evidências de um contrato com tarifa feed-in no Brasil}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2014}, month = apr, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Manipulacao-de-Estimativas-de-Fatores-de-Capacidade-em-contratos-de-emergia-eolica-Sumario-Executivo.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }