Pathways for Sustainable Agricultural Production in Brazil

This policy brief by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) analyzes the potential for Brazil to increase agricultural and beef production without further deforestation. Using stochastic frontier models based on 2006 Agricultural Census data, the research quantifies the production gains possible by eliminating inefficiencies and the corresponding capital and operational investments required to achieve them.

• Brazil has the potential to significantly increase agricultural output without increasing deforestation. At the country level, crop output could increase by 79% if pasture cannot be converted to cropland, and by nearly 105% if such conversion is permitted. The ability to convert low-productivity pastures to high-productivity cropland accounts for an additional 26 percentage point increase in potential crop output.
• Potential gains in beef production are considerably lower and more uniform across the country than those for crops. Eliminating country-level inefficiencies in beef production would result in gains of slightly below 27%, with biome-level gains near 20% and state-level gains around 14%.
• Maximizing agricultural production requires substantial increases in capital and operational spending. To achieve the potential expansion without deforestation (considering pasture-to-cropland conversion), the value of farm equipment would need to increase by 52% and operational costs would need to increase by 51%. More broadly, depending on the scenario, required increases in farm equipment value range from 31.2% to 51.6%, and operational cost increases range from 29.4% to 50.5%.
• The identified capital requirements are minimums and do not guarantee production gains. Realizing these gains depends on the financial system's ability to distribute capital efficiently and the farmers' ability to use it correctly, necessitating that Brazil address existing government and market failures.

APA

Assunção, J., & Bragança, A. (2019). Pathways for Sustainable Agricultural Production in Brazil. Climate Policy Initiative. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Insights-Sustainable-Agricultural-18Jun19.pdf

Chicago

Assunção, Juliano, and Arthur Bragança. Pathways for Sustainable Agricultural Production in Brazil. Climate Policy Initiative, 2019. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Insights-Sustainable-Agricultural-18Jun19.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Assunção |first1=Juliano |last2=Bragança |first2=Arthur |title=Pathways for Sustainable Agricultural Production in Brazil |publisher=Climate Policy Initiative |date=June 2019 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Insights-Sustainable-Agricultural-18Jun19.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{assuno2019pathways, author = {Assunção, Juliano and Bragança, Arthur}, title = {{Pathways for Sustainable Agricultural Production in Brazil}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2019}, month = jun, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Insights-Sustainable-Agricultural-18Jun19.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }