Diretrizes para Avaliação da Área de Influência Direta e Indireta de Projetos de Infraestrutura de Transporte

This guide by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI/PUC-Rio) presents a methodology for assessing the direct and indirect areas of influence of transport infrastructure projects, specifically focusing on their impact on deforestation and carbon emissions in Brazil. Unlike traditional geographic buffer methods, this approach uses 'market access' to capture the socio-economic dynamics that drive land-use changes.

• The 'market access' methodology shifts the focus from simple geographic distance to how a project changes the connectivity between markets, arguing that the impact depends on what the project connects rather than just its design. For example, a road connecting a region to an international port is expected to cause more deforestation than one connecting it to a small town.
• The methodology relies on three primary components: transport costs (the cost of moving goods), market size (represented by population, income, or production), and land conversion (measured by deforestation data). These are combined into a gravity model where market access is a weighted average of the sizes of partner markets, inversely weighted by the cost of access.
• Transport costs are calculated by converting infrastructure data into a graph (nodes and edges), allowing for a flexible model that can incorporate different modes (roads, railways, waterways), paving conditions, transshipment fees at ports, and even tolls.
• The guide describes the 'fishbone' (espinha de peixe) pattern of deforestation, where new legal roads trigger the creation of illegal secondary roads. This occurs when neighboring regions can access the main road due to factors like poor law enforcement or specific topography.
• To estimate the impact of a project, a statistical log-linear model is used to relate market access to cumulative deforestation. In a simplified example applied to the state of Amapá, the model found that a 1% increase in market access was associated with a 0.7% increase in cumulative deforestation.
• Carbon emissions resulting from infrastructure projects can be calculated by overlaying deforestation data with carbon stock maps. A simple estimation method uses a potential CO2 emission value of 48,510 per km² for the Amazon, as defined by the Amazon Fund.

APA

Araujo, R. (2023). Diretrizes para Avaliação da Área de Influência Direta e Indireta de Projetos de Infraestrutura de Transporte. Climate Policy Initiative. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Guidelines-Infra-PT.pdf

Chicago

Araujo, Rafael. Diretrizes para Avaliação da Área de Influência Direta e Indireta de Projetos de Infraestrutura de Transporte. Climate Policy Initiative, 2023. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Guidelines-Infra-PT.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Araujo |first1=Rafael |title=Diretrizes para Avaliação da Área de Influência Direta e Indireta de Projetos de Infraestrutura de Transporte |publisher=Climate Policy Initiative |date=February 2023 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Guidelines-Infra-PT.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{araujo2023diretrizes, author = {Araujo, Rafael}, title = {{Diretrizes para Avaliação da Área de Influência Direta e Indireta de Projetos de Infraestrutura de Transporte}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2023}, month = feb, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Guidelines-Infra-PT.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }