Diretrizes para Avaliação da Área de Influência Direta e Indireta de Projetos de Infraestrutura de Transporte

The guide details a methodology that moves beyond simple geographic distance to assess the 'area of influence' of infrastructure by analyzing how projects change market access. It combines transport costs, market size, and deforestation data into a statistical model to estimate ex-ante environmental risks.

• The market access methodology is presented as a superior alternative to traditional geographic distance buffers because it incorporates socio-economic dynamics, recognizing that the impact of a project depends on what it connects rather than just its physical design.
• The methodology relies on three primary components: transport costs (calculated via a graph-based network of roads, ports, and waterways), market size (represented by population, income, or production), and land conversion (measured through deforestation data).
• The guide demonstrates that specific infrastructure elements, such as bridges, can have disproportionately large impacts on market access and land use compared to their physical size, as they can instantly connect previously isolated markets.
• The 'fishbone' pattern of deforestation is explained as a result of new roads enabling access to protected areas, where a lack of enforcement allows the creation of secondary paths that minimize transport costs.
• Carbon emissions from infrastructure projects can be estimated by overlaying predicted deforestation areas with carbon stock maps; for the Amazon, a baseline emission potential of 48,510 tons of CO2 per km2 is cited.
• In a simplified application for the state of Amapá, the model estimated that a hypothetical new road would result in a deforestation footprint of 368 km2, equivalent to approximately 2.2 km2 of deforestation per kilometer of road, releasing 17 million tons of CO2.
• The guide suggests that the resulting risk maps should guide mitigation efforts, such as command-and-control actions, implementation of the forest code, and payments for ecosystem services (PSE).

APA

Araujo, R. (2023). Diretrizes para Avaliação da Área de Influência Direta e Indireta de Projetos de Infraestrutura de Transporte. Climate Policy Initiative. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Guidelines-Infra-PT.pdf

Chicago

Araujo, Rafael. Diretrizes para Avaliação da Área de Influência Direta e Indireta de Projetos de Infraestrutura de Transporte. Climate Policy Initiative, 2023. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Guidelines-Infra-PT.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Araujo |first1=Rafael |title=Diretrizes para Avaliação da Área de Influência Direta e Indireta de Projetos de Infraestrutura de Transporte |publisher=Climate Policy Initiative |date=February 2023 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Guidelines-Infra-PT.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{araujo2023diretrizes, author = {Araujo, Rafael}, title = {{Diretrizes para Avaliação da Área de Influência Direta e Indireta de Projetos de Infraestrutura de Transporte}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2023}, month = feb, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Guidelines-Infra-PT.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }