Carbon and the Fate of the Amazon

This report by the Climate Policy Initiative analyzes the economic viability of forest restoration in the Brazilian Amazon compared to cattle ranching. It proposes that a carbon price of US$ 20 per ton of CO2 captured via natural regeneration would make restoration more profitable than ranching, potentially capturing 16 Gt CO2 and avoiding another 32 Gt CO2 over 30 years.

• A carbon price exceeding US$ 20 per ton of CO2 captured through natural regeneration would make forest restoration more profitable than cattle ranching across nearly the entire Amazon region. This price point would incentivize the conversion of cattle ranching areas into restoration zones, generating US$ 320 billion in revenue over 30 years and capturing 16 Gt CO2 in the same period.
• The combined climate impact of a US$ 20 per ton carbon price would be a total of 48 billion tons of CO2 over 30 years. This consists of 16 Gt CO2 captured through large-scale forest restoration and 32 Gt CO2 from avoided deforestation emissions.
• Without a robust payment mechanism for forest carbon, the Amazon is expected to reach a tipping point in less than 20 years. In this baseline scenario, deforestation driven by cattle ranching expansion would lead to the emission of approximately 32 billion tons of CO2 over the next 30 years.
• The report identifies a significant economic imbalance in the Brazilian Amazon: while the region contributes just under 9% of Brazil's GDP, it is responsible for approximately 50% of the country's total greenhouse gas emissions.
• The model estimates that the implicit carbon valuation in Brazil up until 2008—based on historical occupation and conservation policies—was US$ 5.76 per ton of CO2. If the forest's value remained at this level, deforestation would likely rise to 30%, surpassing the scientific tipping point of 20-25% in just over a decade.
• The proposed US$ 20 per ton price is considered low compared to regulated markets; for example, the average price in the European market during the first half of 2023 was approximately US$ 90 per ton of CO2.

APA

Climate Policy Initiative (2023). Carbon and the Fate of the Amazon. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/carbon-and-the-fate-of-the-amazon/

Chicago

Climate Policy Initiative. Carbon and the Fate of the Amazon. 2023. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/carbon-and-the-fate-of-the-amazon/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate Policy Initiative |title=Carbon and the Fate of the Amazon |date=21 September 2023 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/carbon-and-the-fate-of-the-amazon/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climatepolicyinitiative2023carbon, author = {{Climate Policy Initiative}}, title = {{Carbon and the Fate of the Amazon}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2023}, month = sep, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/carbon-and-the-fate-of-the-amazon/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }