Carbon and the Fate of the Amazon

The report argues that a carbon price exceeding US$ 20 per ton of CO2 captured would make forest restoration more profitable than cattle ranching across most of the Brazilian Amazon. This mechanism could capture 16 Gt CO2 through restoration and avoid 32 Gt CO2 from deforestation over 30 years, totaling 48 Gt CO2. The study uses a dynamic spatial model to show that such payments would generate US$ 320 billion in revenue, preventing the forest from reaching a tipping point and transforming the region from a net carbon emitter to a carbon sink.

• A carbon price of US$ 20 per ton of net carbon captured would make forest restoration through natural regeneration more profitable than cattle ranching in nearly the entire Brazilian Amazon, helping to preserve forest integrity and curb deforestation.
• Under a US$ 20 per ton scenario, the Amazon would capture 16 Gt CO2 via forest restoration and avoid 32 Gt CO2 from deforestation over the next 30 years, resulting in a total climate benefit of 48 Gt CO2.
• The financial revenue generated by a US$ 20 per ton carbon price would total US$ 320 billion over 30 years, which would compensate for the loss of income from cattle ranching activities.
• Without a robust payment mechanism, deforestation is expected to increase due to cattle ranching expansion, potentially reaching a tipping point in less than 20 years and emitting approximately 32 billion tons of CO2 over 30 years.
• The model estimates that the implicit carbon valuation in Brazil's historical occupation and conservation policies up until 2008 was US$ 5.76 per ton of CO2.
• The Brazilian Amazon's economic contribution is disproportionate to its environmental impact, representing just under 9% of Brazil's GDP while accounting for approximately 50% of the country's greenhouse gas emissions.

APA

Climate Policy Initiative (2023). Carbon and the Fate of the Amazon. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/carbon-and-the-fate-of-the-amazon/

Chicago

Climate Policy Initiative. Carbon and the Fate of the Amazon. 2023. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/carbon-and-the-fate-of-the-amazon/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate Policy Initiative |title=Carbon and the Fate of the Amazon |date=21 September 2023 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/carbon-and-the-fate-of-the-amazon/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climatepolicyinitiative2023carbon, author = {{Climate Policy Initiative}}, title = {{Carbon and the Fate of the Amazon}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2023}, month = sep, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/carbon-and-the-fate-of-the-amazon/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }