Communicating uncertainty

The document outlines five key strategies for communicating climate science: managing audience expectations about the scientific process, framing uncertainty as risk, focusing on established facts, emphasizing scientific consensus, and using visual storytelling.

• Public misunderstanding often stems from the belief that science provides fixed answers, leading people to interpret uncertainty as ignorance. Framing science as an ongoing debate rather than a fixed body of facts can increase motivation to act on uncertain messages.
• Communicators should shift from abstract global model uncertainties to the language of risk used in health, insurance, and national security. Using vivid 'mental models' and practical examples, such as melting glaciers or sea level rise, helps bring these risks to life.
• It is important to clearly state 'knowns' and the overwhelming scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change, as the public often overestimates uncertainty and underestimates consensus. This consensus acts as a 'gateway belief' that determines if people view climate change as requiring an urgent societal response.
• The use of personal stories, case studies, and visual images is recommended to make statistics more accessible and effective than probability statements.

APA

Climate Outreach (2017). Communicating uncertainty. https://climateoutreach.org/helix-communicating-uncertainty/

Chicago

Climate Outreach. Communicating uncertainty. 2017. https://climateoutreach.org/helix-communicating-uncertainty/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate Outreach |title=Communicating uncertainty |date=24 October 2017 |url=https://climateoutreach.org/helix-communicating-uncertainty/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climateoutreach2017communicating, author = {{Climate Outreach}}, title = {{Communicating uncertainty}}, institution = {Climate Outreach}, year = {2017}, month = oct, url = {https://climateoutreach.org/helix-communicating-uncertainty/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }